Democrats are favored to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives heading into 2026—but the size of their possible majority remains an open question, according to recent polling.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spokesperson Viet Shelton told Newsweek that polling shows the American public is “souring” on Republicans.
Why It Matters
Every seat in the House is up for reelection in November, and Democrats are hopeful about their chances of winning a majority of seats for the first time since the 2020 elections. Historically, the party of the president loses seats during the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen since his return to office last January amid concerns about the economy and the cost of living.
Democrats are optimistic about their chances in next year’s midterms following victories in elections across the country this year.
What To Know
Trump’s approval rating is likely to be a major issue for the midterms. Democrats are seeking to make the elections a referendum on his policies, including tariffs, as well as highlighting issues of affordability.
Redistricting could also play a role in the outcome of the House. Republicans in Texas redrew their map to create more conservative-leaning seats, kicking off a redistricting arms race. California retaliated, creating more seats with a Democratic lean. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio have also redrawn their states to create a map more favorable to Republicans. Utah, meanwhile, was ordered to create a new Democratic-leaning district based around Salt Lake City.
Democrats are leading generic ballot polling at this point. But various polls have given Democrats an array of leads.
A recent poll from YouGov and The Economist showed Democrats up about three points among registered voters (43 to 40 percent). It surveyed 1,424 registered voters from December 20-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
However, an AtlasIntel poll was more favorable to Democrats. It showed Democrats up about 16 points (54 to 38 percent), surveying 2,315 adults from December 15-19. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
A Fabrizio Ward poll showed Democrats leading by seven points on the generic ballot (45 to 38 percent). It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from December 15-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Quantus Insights poll showed a closer race—giving Democrats only a two-point lead (43 to 41 percent). It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from December 15-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that Democrats are “very likely to take over the House.” Redistricting is unlikely to give Republicans much of an advantage, he added.
“The Republicans may end up with a more favorable legislative draw here and there with re-redistricting, but Democrats are doing the same in Blue states and will end up countering most of those Republican efforts,” Farnsworth said.
Democrats “seem to be energized” and are securing strong candidates in key races, he said, adding that Republican legislators opting to retire rather than run again could also spell trouble for the GOP.
“To make a bad situation for the party even worse, Trump’s unpopularity right now means that a lot of Republicans are choosing not to run for reelection or thinking about leaving the House. Increasing the number of open seats currently held by Republicans really undermines the party’s prospects in House,” Farnsworth said.
Ernest McGowen III, professor of political science at the University of Richmond, told Newsweek that while the generic ballot currently favors Democrats, there are many factors that could shape the outcome of the midterms. Part of that will be how the two parties behave in the primaries, he said.
“There’s going to be a real question as to whether or not they pick the kind of moderate or that progressive,” McGowen said. “Now, a lot of it is going to depend upon the electoral context that the Democrats are running in.”
One question for Democrats will be if they have “stable” candidates who have strong name recognition and fundraising inroads running in key races, McGowen said, who added that fundraising will also be a critical question for both parties.
“One that’s going to be really interesting to see is where the money goes and how the money kind of shakes out, even once the primaries are done, how the money shakes out in which races everyone is targeting,” he said.
The state of the economy would also “not bode well for the incumbent party,” McGowen said. It’s yet to be seen whether less habitual voters who have turned out for Trump in past elections will be as “fired up” for the midterms.
Democrats last won control of the House of Representatives in 2020, when they won 222 seats, compared to Republicans’ 213 seats, and a roughly 3-point popular vote lead. In 2018, a more favorable year, Democrats won 235 seats, with an 8.6-point victory in the popular vote.
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House, holding 220 seats compared to Democrats’ 213 seats. Two seats won by Democrats in 2024 are vacant. Republicans won the popular vote in 2024 by about 2.6 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report currently gives Democrats an advantage in 208 seats, and Republicans an advantage in 210 seats.
There are five Democratic-held seats considered toss-ups—those held by Representative Adam Gray of California; Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico; Laura Gillen of New York; Greg Landsman of Ohio; and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state.
Twelve GOP-held seats are viewed as toss-ups. Those include the seats held by retiring Representative David Schweikert of Arizona; Juan Ciscomani of Arizona; David Valadao of California; Darrell Issa of California; Gabe Evans of Colorado; Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa; Tom Barrett of Michigan; Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey; Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania; Scott Perry of Pennsylvania; Jen Kiggans of Virginia; and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.
What People Are Saying
DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told Newsweek: “The data is clear: the American public is souring on House Republicans’ broken promises. People are upset about rising costs, and voters want leaders who will fight for them, not the wealthiest few. Going into the midterms, House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, and it’s why we are favored to retake the majority.”
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican who is retiring next month, issued a warning to the GOP in a December 24 post to X: “I’ve warned for months now of the financial crisis for Americans regarding healthcare and here it is in one chart. Republican failure to fix this is going to cost them big time in midterms. Republicans can’t blame Democrats when they do nothing to fix it, And the American people suffer from the failures of both sides of the aisle. It’s gross.”
Journalist G. Elliot Morris wrote in a December 12 Substack post: “The 2025 elections already gave us a preview of what an affordability midterm might look like. In the races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, for example, roughly half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country, according to the exit poll. Those voters backed Democratic candidates for governor over their Republican challengers by 30 percentage points—a 90-point swing relative to the 2024 election.”
Red Eagle Politics, a conservative political commentary account with more than 110,000 followers on X, wrote: “Democrats do better in off-year elections now. Cool, we get it. The thing is, Dems were massively overperforming in countless specials every year since Obama left office, almost ALL went back to baseline in the Midterm or Presidential year.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming year making their cases to voters, and polls will be closely watched to gauge the mood of the electorate. The midterms are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
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