New polling suggests President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level yet as the Iran war and economic pressures dominate the political landscape.
Newsweek contacted the White House via email for comment.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.”
Why It Matters
With the 2026 midterms approaching, independent voters are emerging as the decisive fault line for Republicans, particularly as the Iran war fuels higher gas prices and cost-of-living concerns.
Those pressures are reshaping the political environment at a moment when congressional control is up for grabs.
What To Know
A new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll shows Trump’s approval rating slipping to 42 percent, the lowest level recorded in that survey series—a development that comes at a precarious moment for Republicans heading toward the 2026 midterm elections.
The survey, conducted online from March 18 to 20, polled 1,037 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The figure marks a steady erosion in support since the Iran conflict began, falling from 44 percent on March 3, just days into the war, and down sharply from 48 percent in late January, before U.S. strikes were launched.
With control of Congress likely to hinge on competitive districts and swing voters, the timing of that decline is raising fresh questions about the GOP’s broader electoral footing.
Much of the slide appears to be driven by losses outside Trump’s core base, particularly among independent voters, a bloc Republicans will need to remain competitive in November.
Brett Loyd, a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, told Newsweek that independents are increasingly turned off by what he described as “the never‑ending hyperbolic partisan rhetoric,” arguing that Trump and Republicans in Washington are leaning into a rigid “you’re either with us or against us” mindset at the expense of broader appeal.
Independents, Loyd said, want “durability over drama,” and are growing frustrated with leaders who prioritize “base‑energizing combat over economic pragmatism.”
When that happens, he added, it feels less like governing and more like performance—something “the middle of the country is tired of.”
The poll’s findings help illustrate that divide: some 28 percent of respondents cited the war in Iran as the top reason they disapproved of Trump’s job performance, up from 20 percent earlier this month.
Gas Prices and Economic Concerns
Economic concerns weighed even more heavily, with 44 percent pointing to inflation as their primary grievance, up from 38 percent at the start of March.
Those concerns have been amplified by rising fuel costs. National gas prices have climbed to roughly $3.90 a gallon, compared with about $2.90 before U.S. strikes began on February 28, directly linking foreign policy decisions to everyday affordability.
Voters appear to have little tolerance for additional price hikes. A majority, 54 percent, said they would blame Trump if gas prices rise further because of the conflict, compared with 20 percent who would fault Iran.
Even within Trump’s voter base, views were split, with 27 percent saying the president would be at fault if prices rose, compared with 38 percent who blamed Iran.
Only 19 percent said they would accept a $1 increase in gas prices to secure a military victory, and just 12 percent said a $2 increase would be acceptable.
Opposition to the war itself has also intensified. Support for military action has dropped from 40 percent early in the conflict to 33 percent, while opposition has grown to 49 percent.
Independents now oppose the war by more than two to one—50 percent to 24 percent—a gap that underscores why shifts in the political middle, rather than changes within hardened partisan camps, are driving Trump’s overall approval decline.
Loyd, whose nonpartisan organization focuses on representing and organizing independent voters, who now make up a significant share of the U.S. electorate, said that dynamic poses a real risk as the midterms approach, warning that when voters in the center perceive politics as prioritizing conflict over stability, it accelerates their disengagement.
In his view, that erosion—rather than any softening inside Trump’s base—represents the most serious electoral vulnerability facing Republicans this cycle.
A White House official, however, told Newsweek that polling shows Trump’s decision to launch Operation Epic Fury is backed by a plurality of Americans, with especially strong support among Republicans and MAGA voters, including younger Republican men.
The official pointed to multiple surveys indicating that claims the operation would fracture Trump’s base are not supported by the data, citing polls from The Washington Post, NBC, YouGov and CNN showing broad Republican approval and overwhelming backing among self‑identified MAGA Republicans.
What People Are Saying
Loyd told Newsweek: “It’s tough to win a national midterm when independents view your primary brand as a deal-breaker.
“That’s not to say Democrats are doing anything incredible to court the center; it’s just that Republicans are doing a remarkably efficient job of shedding them.
“By prioritizing base-loyalty over broad appeal, they’re effectively shrinking their own tent and handing the middle of the country to the opposition by default.”
Trump told The New York Post of approval ratings tied to the Iran war: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek previously: “What matters most to the American people is having a commander-in-chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing with the ongoing successful Operation Epic Fury.
“President Trump campaigned proudly on his promise to deny the Iranian regime the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, which is what this noble operation is seeking to accomplish. The President does not make these incredibly important national security decisions based on fluid opinion polls, but on the best interests of the American people.”
A White House official told Newsweek earlier this week: “Polling shows President Trump’s decision to launch Operation Epic Fury has Americans’ support—with MAGA and Republicans strongly supporting it.
“Despite some online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the President’s decision—and many legacy media outlets eagerly highlighting their comments to try and sow division—the MAGA base is not wavering one bit. These commentators claiming this will somehow fracture the president’s support are not backed by or reflected in the polling data.”
What Happens Next
Attention now turns to how long current political and economic pressures persist.
Gas prices, global stability, and the pace of the Iran conflict are likely to shape public sentiment heading into campaign season, while both parties recalibrate strategies aimed at an increasingly pivotal bloc of independent voters.
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