European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is growing increasingly desperate, and Europe should be prepared for potential incidents on its own territory as a result.
“Provocations are also increasing against the Baltics and the eastern flank,” he said at the European Defence and Security Summit in Brussels on Tuesday.
Kubilius referred to the killing last week of Russian dissident Semyon Skrepetsky, who was living in Poland, claiming he was targeted “because of his paintings about Putin”.
“Unfortunately, there may be more such attacks — and even worse ones. Not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe,” Kubilius said.
Skrepetsky, 44, whose legal name was Robert Kuzovkov, was killed on 8 June in a town in eastern Poland near the Belarusian border.
The Russian artist had become known for his provocative paintings, which combined political caricature with satire. Much of his work focused on Russia’s political elite. One of his best-known pieces depicts Putin being cradled in the arms of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
Polish prosecutors said Skrepetsky was shot several times before the suspect fled the scene. A person carrying a passport from Georgia, a former Soviet republic, has since been arrested in connection with the attack.
Local authorities have suggested the killing may have been part of a sabotage operation orchestrated by Moscow, aimed at spreading fear and undermining support among Ukraine’s closest allies.
Speaking in Brussels last Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the incident could represent the first known case of “state-sponsored terrorism” being carried out in Europe.
While the attack has sent shockwaves throughout Poland, in particular, Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that it is not Moscow that is the dangerous actor. On the contrary, it is Europe that is, “becoming a major threat to international peace and security”.
Production push
Kubilius used Skrepetsky’s death as a warning — that if the 27 member states do not take Russian threats seriously, and if capitals fail to meet the defensive capabilities required with production, more shocks could follow.
“Russia is still outproducing us and is able to use millions of drones,” he said.
“Putin is still a danger to European security. Putin is still willing and able to test Article 5. The questions is: are we willing and able to defend ourselves and deter aggression?”
These realities are particularly acute as the United States is expected to soon withdraw strategic enablers worth €500 billion from the continent over the next decade, with more potential cuts to come following a six-month review of the US force posture and basing.
The clear answer to this is for Europe to step-up when it comes to producing its own weapons.
Kubilius said this will be executed through slashing red tape, improving military mobility and ensuring there are European defence projects of common interest, also known as joint procurement. The final piece of the puzzle, however, is a properly integrated defence market.
“Because the established status quo on the supply and demand side in the fragmented European markets dominates everything, and that is why transformation of demand and transformation of defence doctrines in Europe is so slow,” he said.
The European Commission is expected to present a communication on how to better integrate all of Europe’s siloed 27 defence markets next week. Following this, the EU executive will unveil a proposal to “change defence procurement rules and other market rules” for the ease of production.
The need for Europe to scale-up is clear, as Europe produced only 250 cruise missiles in the last 12 months, while pumping out no ballistic missiles. “Ukraine is producing much more,” he said.
Kubilius said the EU has coughed up the requisite cash for defence — referencing the €150 billion SAFE (Security Action for Europe) loans — with options on the table about how to change defence procurement and market rules.
“Now we must create a market for our defence. It’s urgent and important we do this, and do this soon,” he said.
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