Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content are near all-time highs in the Gulf.
The conditions could act like “rocket fuel” by strengthening any tropical storm that might make its way into the Gulf, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Peak hurricane season typically occurs around September 10, but as of Thursday, the Atlantic basin is quiet.
However, meteorologists are warning people not to let their guard down as conditions such as ocean heat content create an ideal environment for tropical storms to gain strength quickly.
What To Know
The lowest temperatures needed for forming a tropical storm is around 80 degrees, and parts of the Gulf are near 90, AccuWeather said in a report on Wednesday.
“The exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling,” DaSilva said in the report.
When deep ocean water is warm, it allows storms to rapidly intensify.
Although the water temperatures have started to fall from their peak, DaSilva told Newsweek that there is “plenty of energy” to work with “if anything is able to get into the Gulf later this month or into October.”
The concern comes as the Atlantic hurricane season has seen a lull during a time when it normally is at its peak. As of Thursday, there are no hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic.
Earlier this year, the NHC predicted an above-average hurricane season with between 13 and 18 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes, including between two and five major hurricanes. So far, there have been six named storms and one major hurricane.
Despite the lull in activity, DaSilva said people should remain alert.
“Just because it’s a quiet season doesn’t mean that we want to let our guard down,” he told Newsweek.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in the AccuWeather report: “Tropical activity is expected to increase in the coming weeks as conditions gradually become more favorable for development. More tropical activity will increase the risk for direct impacts to the Caribbean and U.S. coastlines.”
The NHC, in a forecast about the budding tropical wave: “A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system over the weekend and into early next week while the wave moves toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.”
What Happens Next
People in hurricane-prone areas should continue to monitor forecasts as hurricane season progresses.
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