Support for California Governor Gavin Newsom as a possible Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 has surged over the past four months, a new poll shows.
Newsweek tried to contact Newsom via email for comment after normal business hours.
Why It Matters
The poll indicates support for the more aggressive position Newsom has taken in standing up to President Donald Trump, particularly over a plan by Republicans in Texas to redraw their state’s congressional seat map in the hopes of winning more seats in midterm elections next year.
The battle to become the 2028 presidential election candidate will likely set the new direction for the Democratic Party as it struggles with net favorability at what one recent poll showed to be a three-year low. Newsom has not formally announced his candidacy.
What To Know
The new poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, has Newsom in second place among potential Democratic candidates with 13 percent support, behind former Vice President Kamala Harris with 26 percent. The survey was taken from August 14 to August 18 with a 3.6 percent margin of error among 1,057 registered voters.
A poll published by Echelon Insights in April had Newsom only in sixth place with 4 percent, behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, both on 7 percent. Harris was again in first place with 28 percent.
In the new poll, Buttigieg was in third place with 11 percent and Ocasio-Cortez in fourth place with 6 percent.
The California governor has been punching back at Trump over the past few weeks, particularly in the war of words over redistricting. Meanwhile, his press office has turned its social media feed into a stream of all-caps posts, pop culture parodies and AI-edited meme content, aimed squarely at mocking Trump in style while countering Republican initiatives.
Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University’s Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek last month that polls this far out from a primary were “informative but not necessarily instructive,” largely indicating name recognition or reflecting a stated interest in running in 2028.
Newsom and Buttigieg both have public visibility but a more solid idea of who is running – and who is leading – will develop after the midterms and change after debates and early contests, Bose said, adding that whether Ocasio-Cortez is a viable candidate will be seen after the midterms.
There is also a big question over whether Harris will stand after her loss to Trump last year. In her first interview since she left office on January 20, she told Stephen Colbert that she would not run for California governor in 2026, but denied it was so that she could run for a “different office” — the implication being another run for the presidency.
Newsom has already been on the ascent since February in early 2028 polling in the aftermath of the deadly Los Angeles County fires.
Online betting website Polymarket said this week that his chances of beating Ocasio-Cortez to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 are increasing. The site showed Newsom on 21 percent and leading Ocasio Cortez by 7 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup that also includes other high-profile Democrats. This is 3 percentage points more than earlier this month, when Newsom was 4 percentage points ahead of Ocasio-Cortez. Polymarket showed Harris on only 5 percent.
Ocasio-Cortez has also not formally announced her candidacy for the 2028 race.
What People Are Saying
Strategist Mike Madrid, a political consultant and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump political action committee, previously told Newsweek about Newsom: “People thought his career was over. Now, he’s in the top three in every poll.”
“Democrats are looking for a fighter. It’s not about ideology anymore. You can be centrist or progressive — what matters is that you stand up and hit back. The more aggressive Newsom gets, the more support he builds.”
Trump told reporters in June: “He’s done a terrible job. I like Gavin Newsom. He’s a nice guy but he’s grossly incompetent, everybody knows.”
What Happens Next
Typically, most candidates do not begin announcing presidential runs until after the midterm elections.
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