Voters on Tuesday approved a new map that gives Democrats an advantage for more House seats, just over six months ahead of the midterm elections.
State lawmakers across the country have moved to redraw congressional maps in an effort to strengthen the party in power, with Texas and California at the center of that battle last year. Under the new map, Democrats could gain as many as four seats, improving their chances of reclaiming a majority in the House.
Newsweek has reached out to the Virginia Division of Legislative Services for a copy of the map via email on Tuesday.
What To Know
The referendum required a simple majority to pass, and on Tuesday 50.8 percent of voters backed the measure with 85.1 percent of the vote in as of 8:59 p.m., NBC News reports. The results from Virginia improve Democrats’ odds at securing the House majority. Decision Desk HQ and the Associated Press also reported that the referendum will pass.
Millions of Virginians took to the ballot box, with Virginia Public Access Project reporting over 1.37 million people had cast early ballots. Last year, about 1.48 million Virginians cast early ballots in the election that sent Abigail Spanberger to the governor’s office. The new map could help Democrats win 10 of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Democrats currently hold a narrow 6-5 edge in the state’s congressional delegation.
Ahead of election day, polling suggested the referendum was likely to pass. A State Navigate poll of 707 registered likely special election voters in the state found 50 percent back the constitutional amendment, 45 percent say they won’t vote for it and 5 percent said they were unsure. The poll was conducted between April 10 and 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Another poll of the race from Quantus Insights suggested that a slim majority of Virginia voters are planning to vote in support of the referendum. The poll found that 51 percent of respondents said they would vote in favor of it, compared to 47 percent who planned to vote against it. It surveyed 1,121 likely voters on April 15.
In the days leading up to the referendum, Delores McQuinn, a Democratic member of the House of Delegates, told CNN “We didn’t start this fight, but I’m saying to Virginia, we need to finish it,” adding “We can help level the playing field.” Former President Barack Obama echoed a similar sentiment in a video released Friday, using Virginia’s to vote yes on the proposed map.
Last year, Texas lawmakers approved a mid-cycle congressional redistricting plan pushed by Republicans after encouragement from President Donald Trump, a move to help the GOP gain five seats. California Democrats, led by Governor Gavin Newsom, responded with their own map designed to give the party five additional seats.
Trump has chimed in on the state referendum, saying Monday night, “The whole country is watching it’s so important and so unfair what they’ve done. We need every Virginia patriot to get out and vote no, no, no on the radical Democrats’ unfair ballot referendum.”
Under Virginia Democrats proposed congressional map, the party would likely be favored and competitive in 10 of the state’s 11 districts, while Republicans would be strongly favored in only one seat. Republicans have pushed back against the effort noting that in 2024 then Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won the state by single digits, with less than 52 percent of the vote.
Two of the redistricted seats are held by Representatives Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman, were expected to be competitive in the midterms regardless, as Trump only narrowly carried those districts in the 2024 presidential race. Those races will be contested either way, but Democrats may have an advantage now.
Virginia is one of the last states to put its proposed map up for a vote, with lawmakers in Florida set to hold a special session on congressional redistricting later in April.
According to Kalshi prediction market, Democrats have an 86 percent chance of winning the House, with Republicans at 14 percent. The question has over $7.9 million in volume as of April 21. Democrats have similar odds in a Polymarket question, with 85 percent to Republicans’ 16 percent. That market has a volume of $4.6 million as of April 21.
What Happens Next
Virginia’s new map could influence the next phase of the redistricting fight in Florida next week, as candidates gear up for midterm campaigns with control of Congress on the line. In order to secure a House majority, a party needs to secure at least 218 seats.
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