Lockheed Martin is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The defense contractor currently holds a market capitalization of $113 billion and has posted $71 billion in revenue over the past twelve months. The company continues to be profitable, with $7.0 billion in operating income and $5.3 billion in net income.
Wall Street analysts anticipate earnings of $6.30 per share on revenue of $17.8 billion, compared to $6.33 per share on $17.2 billion in revenue during the same quarter last year. While most business segments are expected to contribute to revenue growth, the Space division may experience a decline due to reduced volume in the Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared program.
For event-driven investors, historical trends can offer useful insights. Traders may choose to position themselves ahead of the report based on past trends or respond after the release by evaluating correlations between short-term and medium-term performance. Looking at LMT’s five-year trend, the stock posted negative one-day returns 60% of the time, with a median single-day drop of 3.2% and a maximum one-day decline of 11.8%. If you’re aiming for upside potential with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative — outperforming the S&P 500 with returns above 91% since inception.
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Lockheed Martin’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- Over the past five years, 20 earnings events have been recorded, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns. This results in a 40% probability of positive returns.
- Over the past three years, that percentage rises to 50%.
- The median return among the 8 positive outcomes was 2.5%, while the 12 negative outcomes had a median return of -3.2%.
Further data on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are detailed in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A potentially less risky approach (provided correlations are strong) is to examine relationships between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings and act accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D have the highest correlation, traders could go “long” for the 5-day period after a positive 1D return. Below is correlation data based on both five-year and three-year performance. Note that 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D and 5D post-earnings returns.
Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed a combined all-cap benchmark (comprising the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), generating strong investor returns. Alternatively, if you prefer less volatility than owning a single stock like Lockheed Martin, check out the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P with over 91% cumulative returns since inception.
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