Newmont is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, after market close. Revenues are likely to come in at about $4.6 billion, as per our estimates, while earnings are likely to come in at about $2.86 per share. Newmont’s gold production rose by 9.2% year-over-year to 1.90 million ounces in Q4 2024. This growth, coupled with higher gold prices, is expected to contribute to improved earnings in Q1 2025.
The company has a current market capitalization of $62 Bil. Revenue over the last twelve months was $19 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.3 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Newmont’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- Over the past five years, there are 17 earnings data points, with 5 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) post-earnings returns observed. In total, positive 1D returns occurred about 29% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 22% when considering data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 5 positive returns is 2.0%, and the median of the 12 negative returns is -4.4%.
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are summarized, along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
One relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the pair with the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For example, if 1D and 5D returns show the strongest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Note that 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Newmont, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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