JAKARTA: Indonesia’s trade balance is likely to post a US$3.2 billion surplus in July, supported by a decline in imports that could help offset slowing exports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday (Aug 29).
However, the expected July surplus is narrower than June’s US$4.11 billion, which had been boosted by a surge in exports ahead of U.S. tariff implementation in August.
The median forecast of 10 economists, surveyed by Reuters between Aug 22 and Aug 29, estimated a 5.2 per cent year-on-year rise in exports for July, compared with an 11.3 per cent increase in June.
Imports were seen in contraction at 5 per cent, which would be the first since January 2025, versus a 4.28 per cent growth in June.
On Monday, the statistics bureau will also announce Indonesia’s consumer price index data for August.
The annual headline inflation in August is expected to accelerate to 2.48 per cent from 2.37 per cent in July, according to the poll, while month-to-month inflation is projected at 0.08 per cent in August, down from 0.3 per cent in July.
The central bank targets inflation within a range of 1.5 to 3.5 per cent in 2025.
Annual core inflation, which strips out government-controlled and volatile food prices, was expected at 2.3 per cent in August, compared with 2.32 per cent in July.
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