Vice President JD Vance no longer commands the support of the majority of Republicans in a hypothetical GOP presidential primary, according to a poll.
The survey by AtlasIntel shows that, while the largest proportion of Republicans (46.7 percent) would pick Vance in a hypothetical contest between him, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and other figures, this is less than the 54.6 percent of support he accrued in AtlasIntel’s September polling.
While Vance has not publicly stated his intention to run in the election, he has increased his public profile through his key White House role and has been widely tipped as a potential heir to Trump.
Newsweek reached out to a representative for Vance by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Because of the 22nd Amendment in the U.S. Constitution, added in 1951, presidents may only serve two terms in the White House. So, Trump will need to pass the baton to another Republican candidate in 2028.
If Vance’s popularity is declining, it could indicate a wider backlash against the Trump administration. It may also persuade other candidates to throw their hats into the ring to challenge Vance, disrupting the future of U.S. politics.
What To Know
The polling shows that Vance still leads other candidates by 24 points. Aside from the 46.7 percent who said they would vote for Vance in 2028 primaries, 22.6 percent said they would vote for Rubio and 13.4 percent opted for DeSantis.
But in September, Vance’s lead was greater, when 54.6 percent said they would vote for him and 16.3 percent said they would vote for DeSantis. Rubio was in close third place, with 12.2 percent of the vote share.
Speaking to Newsweek, Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at University College Dublin said the polling means “people are reacting to the tensions within the Trumpist movement” as well discontent about the release of files associated with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and “the state of the economy.”
While the polling shows Vance’s popularity falling, it comes as Turning Point leader Erika Kirk, wife of the deceased conservative activist Charlie Kirk, endorsed Vance as Trump’s potential successor. This may boost his standing among some sects of the GOP.
But Vance also scored a loss on Sunday when Republican Senator Rand Paul said he would not back Vance in a 2028 contest, citing his opposition to the Trump administration’s tariffs policy in an ABC News interview.
Meanwhile, other polls also suggest that while Vance does not command the support of the majority of Republicans, he is still the most popular candidate to replace Trump. According to a YouGov survey conducted from November 6 to 9, Vance had 42 percent of the vote share while Donald Trump Jr, the president’s son, came in distant second at 13 percent. The survey included 2,172 U.S. adult citizens and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump said in September when asked if JD Vance is the successor to MAGA: “Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
Vice President JD Vance told Fox News’ Sean Hannity earlier this month: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”
What Happens Next
Most candidates do not announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections, which are scheduled to take place in November 2026. Aside from Republicans, there is also speculation about which Democratic politicians will run for president
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