Michael Sukkar, the shadow housing minister, was defending the tightest seat in the country, with Deakin sitting on a razor’s edge margin of 0.02 per cent.
Liberal MP Keith Wolahan is in danger of losing Menzies.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
In a recent Age profile, Sukkar said he was as “close as you can get in politics” to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. And like Dutton, Sukkar was set to be on his way out of parliament.
His seat, covering Ringwood, Vermont and Croydon, is likely now in Labor hands for only the fourth time since 1970, after Matt Gregg recorded a two-party swing of over 7 per cent, according to the AEC.
The ABC’s Green said counting of pre-poll votes might reduce the margin, but it was unlikely to turn around in Sukkar’s favour.
“It looks like Matt Gregg will win that seat,” he said.
Labor candidate for Deakin Matt Gregg and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Croydon in April.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Menzies, which includes Doncaster, Templestowe and Box Hill, has never been a Labor seat since its creation in 1984. And perhaps that isn’t surprising when it’s named after the longest-serving prime minister, Liberal Robert Menzies.
However, sitting MP Keith Wolahan was in a very close battle with Labor candidate Gabriel Ng on Saturday night, with the AEC showing Ng ahead on primary votes.
After the distribution of preferences, Ng had a margin of 5 per cent. However Wolahan was still in range of a comeback.
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In the seat of Casey, which takes in the Yarra Ranges, the projected margin was less than 1 per cent between sitting Liberal Aaron Violi and Labor challenger Naomi Oakley, but postal votes often favour Liberal candidates.
La Trobe was a safe Liberal seat, covering the outer commuter belt of Pakenham and Officer, as well as Dandenong Ranges towns like Emerald and Gembrook.
However, even that was up for grabs, as Liberal Jason Wood faced a close battle with Labor’s Jeff Springfield. Even if the Liberals hold it, the seat will be marginal at the next election.
If he holds on in La Trobe, Liberal Jason Wood will return with a reduced margin.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer
Former Liberal pollster Tony Barry said on the ABC that the party needed to urgently figure out what had gone wrong in Victoria.
“Questions need to be asked of the Victorian Liberal Party once again,” he said. “They continue to find new ways to fail. There is simply no pathway to victory in the near future, in the next couple of elections, unless the Liberal Party can be semi-competitive in Victoria.”
Kos Samaras, a director at polling company Redbridge Group, said the median age of people in the outer suburbs was in the 30s and 40s.
“It is exactly the demographic group we have seen saying the Coalition has a massive problem with,” he told the ABC. “The two-party preferred vote across a range of seats in the outer suburbs, in particular amongst Gen Z and Millennials, was over 60 per cent in favour of Labor.”
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