New York City socialist Zohran Mamdani continues to hold a commanding lead — 21 points — in the mayoral race, fueled partly by a growing black base, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The lefty Dem captured the support of 45% of the respondents, compared to 24% who said they back ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 17% in the camp of Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and 9% going for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, with 5% undecided, said the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion survey.
While Cuomo carried most black precincts in the Democratic primary in June, nearly half, or 47%, of likely black voters said they would back Mamdani in the general election, compared to 26% for Cuomo, 11% for Adams and 5% for Sliwa, the poll says.
If Adams were to drop out of the contest, Mamdani’s lead among all of the poll’s likely voters shrinks to 16 points.
He would receive 46% of likely voters’ support compared with 30% for Cuomo and 18% for Sliwa.
In a hypothetical two-way contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani’s lead shrinks to a narrower 10 points, with 49% of likely voters supporting him and 39% backing the ex-gov, thanks to Sliwa voters switching to him.
The remaining 12% would vote for another candidate or are undecided.
The Marist survey mirrored several polls released last week showing Mamdani with double-digit leads in a fractured four-person field with Cuomo and Adams running on independent ballot lines.
The poll was conducted last week, before Gov. Kathy Hochul’s bombshell endorsement of Mamdani on Sunday.
Sliwa, the Guardian Angels founder, said he will not exit the race despite appeals from President Trump to do so to make it a more competitive one-on-one way contest to try to topple front-runner Mamdani.
Most New York City voters — 63% — predict that Mamdani, the 33-year-old Democratic Socialist Queens assemblyman, will win the mayoralty, the poll showed.
“Mamdani is running up the score,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion. “It’s getting late early.”
Mamdani is overpowering his opponents among younger voters and liberal voters.
Among voters under age 45, 62% back Mamdani — a nearly 50 point gap over Cuomo, who has just 14% support in the new poll
It’s a split with voters over the age of 45, with 33% backing Mamdani, 30% supporting Cuomo and 21% preferring Sliwa and 8% Adams.
A staggering 86% of very liberal voters support Mamdani, as did 65% of voters who identify as liberal.
Moderates favored Cuomo 35% to 31% compared to Mamdani, with 17% for Sliwa and 9% for Adams.
Sliwa captured 42% of support of conservatives to Cuomo’s 24%, Adams’ 16% and Mamdani’s 14%.
As for all non-white voters, Mamdani gets 51% support to just 22% for Cuomo, 12% for Sliwa and 8% for Adams in the poll.
Mamdani also leads among whites, with 39% supporting him to Cuomo’s 26%, 23% for Sliwa and 9% for Adams.
A majority of Latinos — 52% — also back Mamdani compared to 21% for Cuomo, 17% for Sliwa and 7% for Adams.
Cuomo hammered Mamdani’s positions on Israel during the campaign, including the radical’s support of the boycott movement against the Jewish state, amid concerns about antisemitism.
But Jewish voters are still split — 35% for Mamdani, 35% for Cuomo, 17% for Adams and 11% for Sliwa.
Mamdani led in every borough, including by 33 points in the most populous, Brooklyn, in the new poll.
A big challenge for Cuomo and other rivals is that voters find Mamdani more likeable, pollster Miringoff said.
Fifty-two percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Mamdani compared to 40% who have an unfavorable impression.
In contrast, 39% have a favorable impression of Cuomo, and 59% have an unfavorable view.
Meanwhile, 68% have an unfavorable view of Adams, and 51% an unfavorable impression of Sliwa.
Miringoff said Cuomo has to talk up his progressive accomplishments to break into Mamdani’s lock among younger and liberal voters — perhaps by talking about approving New York’s gay marriage law when he was governor, for example.
He said Cuomo and other rivals will have opportunities to score points against Mamdani during debates closer to the Nov. 4 election, when more voters are paying attention.
Cuomo “needs to step it up” to blunt Mamdani’s momentum to winning City Hall, Miringoff said.
Marist sampled 885 likely voters from Sept. 8-11 through live phone interviews, text responses and online. It has a margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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