Another jam-packed day of NCAA Tournament action tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET with Santa Clara (10) vs. Kentucky (7) in the Midwest Region.
Today’s highlights include Akron (12) vs. Texas Tech (5) and Hofstra (13) vs. Alabama (4) in a couple of matchups with major upset potential, plus Miami (OH) (11) vs. Tennessee (6) in another intriguing look at the RedHawks.
Alright, let’s get to it, with quick breakdowns and picks for all 16 games on tap.
Note: Odds below come from DraftKings as of Friday morning, all times ET.
Santa Clara (10) vs. Kentucky (7) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 12:15 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: Santa Clara +2.5 (-102); Kentucky -2.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Santa Clara +130; Kentucky -155
- Total: 157.5 (o-110; u-110)
Kentucky won just four of its last 10 games, finishing 21-13 (10-8 SEC) after an 8-3 start in SEC play.
The Wildcats have a tricky matchup today against Santa Clara, which went 26-8 in the WCC and is No. 14 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (125). It’s always tough to project how West Coast Conference teams besides Gonzaga will perform in the Big Dance, and the outcome of Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M last night certainly makes it fair to question how Santa Clara will hold up today.
In what admittedly strikes me as a toss-up, I’ll take the Wildcats to move on in a close game.
Prediction: Kentucky to advance
Best bet: Kentucky ML (-155)
Akron (12) vs. Texas Tech (5) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 12:40 p.m. (truTV)
- Spread: Akron +7.5 (-105); Texas Tech -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Akron +260; Texas Tech -325
- Total: 155.5 (o-115; u-105)
I’m higher on Texas Tech than most, even though it’s impossible to deny this team isn’t the same without big man JT Toppin. Red Raiders G Christian Anderson (18.9 points per game on 42.5 percent 3-point shooting) is due for a big game after struggling against Iowa State in an ugly loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament.
Akron’s Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg) could help the Zips keep this one close, but I like Texas Tech’s backcourt to make the difference and keep the Red Raiders’ season alive after a season-ending three-game losing streak. I’ll take Akron to cover, though.
Prediction: Texas Tech to advance
Best bet: Akron +7.5 (-105)
Long Island (16) vs. Arizona (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 1:35 p.m. (TNT)
- Spread: Long Island +30.5 (-108); Arizona -30.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: LIU +5000; ARI -100000
- Total: 149.5 (o-108; u-112)
There’s just not a ton to break down when the favorite is laying 30-plus points.
If there’s a play worth considering here, it’s the Under on LIU’s team total. The Wildcats are No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing a slew of elite offenses this year, and they should be able to shut down the Sharks.
Prediction: Arizona to advance
Best bet: LIU TT Under 58.5 (-105)
Wright State (14) vs. Virginia (3) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 1:50 p.m. (TBS)
- Spread: Wright State +17.5 (-102); Virginia -17.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Wright State +1200; Virginia -2400
- Total: 145.5 (o-110; u-110)
Virginia’s size makes it a brutal matchup for Wright State, which went 23-11 in the Horizon League and was among the worst teams in the country in 2-point field goal percentage defense.
With that in mind, I’ll take the Cavaliers, who blew out almost every nonconference opponent they faced back in November and December, to roll (and cover) this afternoon.
Prediction: Virginia to advance
Best bet: Virginia -17.5 (-118)
Tennessee State (15) vs. Iowa State (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 2:50 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: Tennessee State +24.5 (-105); Iowa State -24.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: TSU +2200; ISU -8000
- Total: 147.5 (o-115; u-105)
The Cyclones are an excellent defensive team, especially at forcing turnovers. The best play here, to me, is Tennessee State to go under its team total.
Prediction: Iowa State to advance
Best bet: Tennessee State Alt Team Total Under 60.5 points (-105)
Hofstra (13) vs. Alabama (4) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
3:15 p.m., truTV
- Spread: Hofstra +11.5 (-110); Alabama -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: HOF +550; BAMA -800
- Total: 158.5 (o-108; u-112)
Hofstra’s profile makes it a tempting underdog, especially with Aden Holloway out of the picture for the Crimson Tide.
The Pride play at a snail’s pace (64.8 possessions per 40 minutes) and are an excellent defensive team, with an effective field goal percentage defense of 45.9 percent (No. 9 nationally). I’m aware that slowing the game down vs. Alabama is much easier said than done, but Hofstra has a good chance to play this game at slower pace than Bama would like.
This could be a low-scoring (or at least lower-scoring than the typical Bama game) slog as long as Hofstra can limit its turnovers. With that in mind, I’ll take Hofstra at +11.5 and the Under.
Prediction: Alabama to advance
Best bets: Hofstra +11.5 (-110), Under 158.5 (-112)
Utah State (9) vs. Villanova (8) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 4:10 p.m. (TNT)
- Spread: Utah State -1.5 (-110); Villanova +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: USU -135; NOVA +114
- Total: 146.5
The fact that the Aggies (28-6) are favored over a Big East foe says a lot about the caliber of the Mountain West champs (both regular season and conference tourney).
Utah State had a couple of ugly late-season losses (89-72 to San Diego State and 92-65 to UNLV), but it dominated the Mountain West Tournament, winning three games by a total of 44 points.
Villanova wa not competitive against the last two NCAA Tournament opponents it faced, losing 75-63 to UConn and 89-57 to St. John’s in recent weeks before bowing out of the Big East Tournament with a 78-74 loss to Georgetown, which went 16-18 this season.
Prediction: Utah State to advance
Best bet: Utah State -1.5 (-110)
Miami (OH) (11) vs. Tennessee (6) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 4:25 p.m. (TBS)
- Spread: MIA (OH) +12.5 (-115); TEN -12.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: MIA (OH) +470; TEN -650
- Total: 148.5 (o-110; u-110)
For basketball nerds, this might be the most intriguing game of the day. Miami’s 5-out system carved up SMU in the First Four on Wednesday night, and the RedHawks easily overcame their lack of size against the Mustangs by draining 16 of 41 3-point attempts.
I already doubted Miami once because of its lack of size and got burned for it, but I haven’t learned my lesson: I expect Tennessee, which is perennially one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (and is No. 1 , to exploit the RedHawks’ lack of size in a way that SMU could not.
That being said, Miami’s unique offense should give the Vols — who allow a high volume of 3-point attempts — trouble early, so let’s go with the RedHawks at +6.5 on the first half spread. The underdogs on the 1H ML are also tempting at +280, but I’m going to play it safe here.
Prediction: Tennessee to advance
Best bet: Miami (Ohio) 1H +6.5 (-110)
Iowa (9) vs. Clemson (8) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 6:50 p.m. (TNT)
- Spread: Iowa -2.5 (-102); Clemson +2.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Iowa -30; Clemson +110
- Total: 129.5 (o-108; u-112)
This game has one of the lowest totals of the entire first round, but it’s still worth watching, especially if you aren’t yet familiar with Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz.
The former Drake star, who followed coach Ben McCollum from Drake to Iowa last offseason, should have a big day against the Tigers, who are A) missing one of their top players in big man Carter Welling and B) lost five of their last seven regular season games this year.
Prediction: Iowa to advance
Best bets: Iowa -2.5 (-102), Under 129.5 (-108)
Northern Iowa (12) vs. St. John’s (5) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: NIU +9.5 (-105); SJU -9.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: NIU +425; SJU -575
- Total: 132.5 (o-112; u-108)
St. John’s is red-hot, with a 19-1 record in its last 20 games, including a 20-point blowout of UConn in the Big East Tournament Championship Game.
The Red Storm are a risky team to lay a bunch of points with because they don’t usually do much damage from outside. Still, I ike Rick Pitino’s team to wear down Northern Iowa and win this one going away.
Prediction: St. John’s to advance
Best bet: SJU -9.5 (-115)
UCF (10) vs. UCLA (7) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 7:25 p.m. (TBS)
- Spread: UCF +5.5 (-112); UCLA -5.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: UCF +185; UCLA -225
- Total: 152.5 (o-105; u-115)
UCLA finished the regular season on a tear, and as long as Donovant Dent and Tyler Bilodeau are close to 100 percent today, I like the Bruins to win this game with some room to spare, even though UCF boasts a handful of impressive wins, including victories over Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU.
A big reason the Bruins finished the season on a high note was their improved defensive play following the return of veteran guard Skyy Clark, who missed almost all of January. With Clark back in the lineup down the stretch, UCLA took down Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State, and it held Purdue to just 73 points despite the absences of Dent and Bilodeau in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals.
Prediction: UCLA to advance
Best bet: Under 152.5 (-115)
Queens (15) vs. Purdue (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 7:35 p.m. (truTV)
- Spread: Queens (NC) +25.5 (-110); Purdue -25.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Queens +2200; Purdue -8000
- Total: 160.5 (o-110; u-110)
To me, Purdue has too much size, depth and experience for this one to stay competitive for long. Give me the Boilermakers to roll and the over, as a 90- or 100-point outburst by the favorites wouldn’t surprise me.
Prediction: Purdue
Best bet: Over -160.5 (-110)
Prairie View A&M (16) vs. Florida (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 9:25 p.m. (TNT)
- Spread: PVA&M +35.5 (-115); FLA -35.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: PVA&M +5000; FLA -100000
- Total: 155.5 (o-105; u-115)
The Gators might be the last team a 15- or 16-seed should want to see, as Florida is coming off an ugly loss in the SEC Tournament. Few teams posted more dominant victories than Florida this year. But while I expect them to win big today, this spread is too big to invest in the Gators to cover.
This game should probably be avoided altogether, but if you want to wager on this one, consider Florida on the first half spread.
Prediction: Florida to advance
Best bet: Florida 1H -21.5 (-115)
California Baptist (13) vs. Kansas (4) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: Cal Baptist +13.5 (-102); Kansas -13.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Cal Baptist +750; Kansas -1200
- Total: 139.5 (o-115, u-105)
Kansas has been on a roller coaster, to say the least, all year, and no outcome for the Jayhawks in this tournament would surprise me.
Cal Baptist boasts one of the most explosive scorers you probably haven’t heard of in guard Dominique Daniels, but I’m not sure he’ll be enough for the Lancers to keep this one competitive for 40 minutes.
The Under is the best play here in a matchup of one of the best defensive teams in the country, Kansas, and one of the top defensive teams in the mid-majors.
Prediction: Kansas to advance
Best bet: First half under 65.5 (-120)
Furman (15) vs. UConn (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 10 p.m. (TBS)
- Spread: Furman +20.5 (-108); UConn -20.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Furman +1700; UConn -4500
- Total: 135.5 (o-108; u-112)
The Huskies aren’t a team I trust to make a run right now, but I do like them to win big today. UConn is coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in the Big East Tournament final, and an emphatic response, especially in the early going of this one, shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Furman finished in fifth place in the SoCon, and its record against the field is not encouraging. The Paladins lost 97-71 to High Point in their season opener, and they also lost to Troy (64-61) and Northern Iowa (70-54) in nonconference play, though they do boast a 90-79 win over 15-seed Queens.
Prediction: UConn to advance
Best bet: UConn 1H -11.5 (-120)
Missouri (10) vs. Miami (7) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. (truTV)
- Spread: MIZ +1.5 (-105); MIA -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: MIZ +110; MIA -130
- Total: 145.5 (o-108; u-112)
The Hurricanes were one of the biggest surprises in the ACC this year in their first season under Jai Lucas. This matchup seems like a coin flip, and it’s priced accordingly, but I have no problem betting against Missouri, which went 3-5 over its last eight and allowed 80-plus points in four of those losses.
Prediction: Miami to advance
Best bets: Miami -1.5 (-115), Miami alt TT o74.5 (+101)
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