Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has ordered tighter border controls on foreign nationals in the wake of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, as he increasingly frames security issues as a central pillar of his electoral campaign.
Orbán has argued that the armed conflict in the Middle East poses risks to Hungary in terms of energy prices and national security. Analysts say his security-provider narrative could prove advantageous in the run-up to the vote.
At the same time, Orbán has escalated a dispute with Ukraine over the Druzhba pipeline, a critical artery for Hungary’s energy supply. The pipeline was struck in a suspected Russian attack in late January and has not been repaired since.
Hungary heads to the polls on 12 April in a parliamentary election in which the opposition Tisza party is polling ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz. Orbán has governed Hungary with an absolute parliamentary majority since 2010.
His main challenger, Péter Magyar, is running an aggressive campaign focused on the cost of living and inflation.
Orbán portrays himself as a guarantor of security
Last Saturday, shortly after the US and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, Orbán convened his security cabinet and raised the country’s terror alert by one level. Then, on Thursday, the prime minister met with his anti-terrorism coordination committee and ordered border checks.
“Terrorist organisations with Middle Eastern origins have established themselves and grown stronger in Western Europe. We expect them to activate terrorist cells across Europe. We will protect the peace and security of Hungary in this situation as well. We have therefore strengthened controls on foreign passenger traffic arriving in Hungary,” Orbán announced.
Details of the checks were not immediately available. Orbán also ordered soldiers and police to protect Hungary’s key energy infrastructure last week, citing fears of an attack from Ukraine.
According to Bulcsú Hunyadi, a political analyst at Hungary’s Political Capital Institute, Orbán’s effort to position himself as a guarantor of security could pay off.
“The conflict with Iran deepens uncertainty, which fits the narrative that the environment is unstable and that security is being provided by the government and Fidesz,” Hunyadi said.
“This can also be easily linked to the narrative about how important Russian oil arriving via Ukraine is, amid growing uncertainty on energy markets.”
Hungary is currently blocking the European Union’s €90 billion loan package to Ukraine over the Druzhba pipeline dispute. Budapest accuses Kyiv of political blackmail; Ukraine has said a ceasefire with Russia is a prerequisite for repairs.
Dániel Hegedűs, deputy director of the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, said the Druzhba issue could also work in Orbán’s favour.
“The current developments fundamentally threaten Hungary’s energy security, and I think people are wondering whether it might be in their interest for Ukraine to restart the transfer in the short term,” Hegedűs said.
Crisis could still backfire
However, the broader energy crisis in Europe could yet backfire on the Hungarian government if prices remain elevated in the weeks ahead. Magyar’s Tisza is campaigning hard on the issue of inflation and the cost of living.
“You can blame Ukraine, Iran, America, and the European Union in the short run. But if the government promises to protect people and still fails to deliver in practice, that could easily turn against them. In the long run, I think there are real risks for the government,” Hunyadi said.
He also noted that the clash between US President Donald Trump’s image in Hungary as a president of peace and his subsequent launching of a fresh military campaign may not necessarily derail Orbán’s campaign messaging.
“This could cause cognitive dissonance in the campaign if there were a political figure who chose to exploit it. So far, I have not seen Tisza make this a major issue,” Hunyadi said, adding that Magyar’s party continues to focus on domestic concerns and has so far avoided venturing into foreign policy territory.
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