FOOD SECURITY
Beyond energy security, Seah cautioned that food security could emerge as an even more pressing concern.
Climate change continues to threaten agricultural production across Southeast Asia through more frequent droughts, floods and extreme weather.
Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the conflict between the United States and Iran have reduced fertiliser supplies and driven up costs, adding further pressure to food production across the region.
She noted that the full impact has yet to be felt as countries are still relying on previous harvests and importing food from a wider range of markets.
“There’s still a fairly reasonable amount that has been produced in the last season, and countries in the region have (also) diversified many of their food sources,” she said. “So, the impact won’t be seen until later. But if we can mitigate some of these impacts, then it will be much lessened.”
MYANMAR
The crisis in Myanmar is also expected to feature prominently in Manila after ASEAN’s top diplomats met Myanmar Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe earlier this month.
It marked the first in-person engagement between Myanmar’s foreign minister and ASEAN foreign ministers since Myanmar’s military takeover in 2021, despite objections from some member states.
Facilitated by Thailand and held in Bangkok, the meeting was framed as an informal engagement.
Myanmar’s military government is likely to portray the recent meeting as a step towards normalising ties with ASEAN. However, several member states have stressed that engagement should not be interpreted as recognition.
ASEAN’s official position remains unchanged. Myanmar’s leader Min Aung Hlaing and his foreign minister remain barred from high-level ASEAN meetings until there is meaningful progress in implementing the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan.
Khin Zaw Win, director of Yangon-based think-tank Tampadipa Institute, said ASEAN remains unconvinced by Myanmar’s commitments.
“ASEAN countries are not fools. They know that Myanmar has accepted the Five-Point Consensus but done nothing about it,” he said.
He added that Thailand has a unique stake in the crisis because it hosts a significant number of Myanmar refugees and a sizable Myanmar migrant workforce, making continued engagement in Bangkok’s interests.
Seah said the regional grouping is likely to continue taking a cautious, consensus-based approach.
“Because ASEAN works on consensus, (member states) are very likely to internally recalibrate, have discussions … and see where the whole group wants to go,” she said.
In the short term, such informal engagements could provide useful channels for closed-door diplomacy and help facilitate dialogue on Myanmar.
However, ASEAN has consistently maintained that any lasting political solution must ultimately be led and owned by the people of Myanmar.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
The forum is also expected to address tensions in the South China Sea, where territory is contested by several regional countries.
The issue is in renewed focus shortly after the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling that invalidated the legal basis of China’s sweeping claims over much of the South China Sea. Beijing has rejected the ruling and continues to maintain its claims.
Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial said ASEAN and China remained committed to negotiating a “substantive and effective” code of conduct for the waterway and expressed confidence progress could be achieved this year.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to attend related meetings in Manila, alongside their counterparts from Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain.
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