Republicans’ chances of holding off Democrats in the 2026 midterms appear to have surged according to a new poll, while a number of other recent surveys still show possible trouble for the GOP.
Newsweek reached out to the DCCC and RNC for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats are looking for a 2018-style “blue wave” in the midterms, when all seats in the House and a third of all Senate seats are up for reelection. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during midterms, and Democrats have been performing well in special elections across the country—what they hope is a good sign for the party next year.
Despite performing well on some generic ballots, polls suggest that, despite President Donald Trump’s waning approval rating, the Democratic Party also remains unpopular with many voters. Party leaders continue to grapple with how to best win back voter groups that have shifted toward Republicans, including young voters and Latino and Asian Americans, who trended rightward in 2024. Meanwhile, many Democrats feel their party has not sufficiently opposed the Trump administration and have called for new leadership ahead of the midterms.
What To Know
A new poll from the Napolitan News Service and RMG Research showed Republicans with their strongest lead against Democrats so far in 2025, giving the GOP an 8-point advantage on the generic ballot.
Fifty-two percent of the poll’s respondents said they planned to vote for a Republican, while 44 percent said they planned to vote for Democrats. This was a shift from May, when Democrats had a slight advantage—48 percent planned to support Democrats, while 45 percent leaned toward Republicans, according to the pollster.
In April, the pollster had Democrats up five points—50 percent to 45 percent.
The new poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 18 to June 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The poll is not in line with other current generic ballot surveys, most of which show Democrats with a modest lead over Republicans. The Napolitan poll also differs from some recent surveys in that it pressed undecided voters about which way they are leaning—so there is a smaller number of undecided voters—only 2 percent.
A recent poll from YouGov and The Economist, for instance, showed Democrats up three points, with 39 percent support compared to 36 percent leaning toward Democrats. The poll surveyed 1,610 adults from May 30 to June 2. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Real Clear Polling showed Democrats with roughly an average of a 2.4 point lead over Republicans.
Republicans won the popular vote by 2.7 percentage points in 2022, which was considered an underwhelming performance despite former President Joe Biden’s low approval rating at the time. They gained only nine seats. In 2018, Democrats won the midterms by 8.6 points, flipping 41 seats.
One recent poll of a battleground seat in Iowa showed Democrat Christina Bohannan up over GOP Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 4 percentage points. The House Majority PAC poll surveyed 555 voters in the district from June 18 to June 19, Politico reported.
When Are the 2026 Midterm Elections?
The midterms are set to be held on Tuesday November 3, 2025. Primary elections will be held throughout the year, the exact date of those races depending state-to-state. The best way to know when a primary will be held is by checking with local and state elections officials.
What People Are Saying
GOP pollster Brent Buchanan responded to the poll on X (formerly Twitter): “Generic ballots don’t swing this hard month-to-month… Is GOP doing well? Yes. Doing this well? No.”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten warned Republicans about the midterms earlier in June, comparing popularity for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” to his 2017 tax cuts: “That wasn’t that popular back in the day. It was at -17 net favorable rating, but here, what do we see with the Big Beautiful Bill? On the aggregate, -28, so this is far more unpopular than those tax cuts were in 2017. Remember, Republicans lost the House in 2018, so if this is the ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ it may be a big beautiful bill for Democrats if it passes, because they’ll have a big beautiful night on the midterms of 2026.”
What Happens Next
The midterms are still more than a year away, so it’s unclear exactly what the national environment will look like in the fall of 2026. Over the coming year, more candidates will jump into key races as polls will continue to be a key metric.
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