Support for Donald Trump among Latino voters is falling, but Democrats aren’t benefiting from the shift. New polling shows a growing number of Latino voters feel politically disillusioned with both parties and increasingly undecided heading into the 2026 midterms.
Pew Research Center’s latest survey shows Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters has dropped to 27 percent, returning to levels last seen during his first campaign. Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who has studied Latino voting patterns for decades, said Republicans are making a serious miscalculation by assuming the 2024 gains will hold.
“They’re treating 2024 like a permanent shift,” Madrid told Newsweek. “But Latino support for Trump is already reverting to where it was in 2016.”
Latino voters have traditionally leaned Democratic, but Trump made major inroads in 2024, winning 48 percent of the Hispanic vote—more than any Republican since George W. Bush in 2004. That support now appears wobbly at best.
“Latinos are behaving more like the general electorate,” said Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist at Florida International University. “The economy is the top issue, and second- and third-generation Hispanics are focusing less on immigration and more on wages, jobs, and cost of living.”
But while many Latino voters are pulling away from Trump, they’re not returning to the Democratic fold. A July report from Equis Research found that about one-third of Latino Trump voters are now undecided for 2026. Economic concerns remain front and center: 58 percent of Latino voters—including many who supported the president in 2024—believe he is more focused on culture wars and immigrant crackdowns than on lowering the cost of living.
Trump’s numbers on economic issues have collapsed. His approval rating on the cost of living stands at just 23 percent, with a net disapproval of -50. Even among former supporters, the perception is solidifying that he hasn’t delivered on his economic promises.
Immigration, long seen as a defining issue for Latino voters, has also shifted. While Trump continues to score high on border security, his aggressive enforcement tactics are now driving away some of his own voters. Among Latinos who regret or feel disappointed in their 2024 vote, large majorities oppose workplace raids, ICE agents in masks and civilian clothes and hardline detention policies. For these voters, Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement has become excessive and disconnected from their priorities.
Democrats Sense Opening, but Struggle to Act
Still, Democrats have failed to turn this discontent into momentum. In the same Equis poll, more Latino swing voters said Democrats “talk a lot about how dangerous Trump is but don’t do anything to stop him” than said they were offering effective resistance. In competitive congressional districts with large Latino populations, Democrats hold only a narrow lead. Nationally, the party’s favorability among Latinos has slipped to +3. In battlegrounds, it’s effectively zero.
Even voters who once backed Joe Biden and flipped to Trump in 2024 remain skeptical. Half of those “Biden defectors” now disapprove of Trump’s economic performance, yet they haven’t moved back toward the Democrats.
“The biggest takeaway from this research is that neither party should assume they have Latinos in their pocket,” Equis co-founder Stephanie Valencia told MSNBC columnist Julio Ricardo Varela. “We’re seeing increased cynicism about both parties among key swing voters.”
Valencia said many Latinos supported Trump not out of ideological alignment, but because they were desperate for economic relief. “But he hasn’t delivered,” she said. “Democrats will need to offer a proactive plan that actually addresses cost-of-living issues if they want to win these voters back.”
In some parts of the country, those frustrations showed up on the ballot. In Clark County, Nevada, Politico found a 30 percent increase in ballots split between Trump and Democratic House candidates. In Arizona, Senator Ruben Gallego outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by six points in heavily Latino precincts. In Texas, Democrats did better than the top of the ticket, even as Trump carried the state.
Despite the shifting numbers, both parties face an uphill battle. Latino voters haven’t forgotten past Democratic failures on immigration reform or the party’s slow response on economic issues like wages, housing and health care. And they no longer respond to fear-based appeals centered on Trump’s rhetoric.
“The idea that Trump’s extremism would be enough to win back these voters was inaccurate in 2024, and it remains so in 2025,” Varela wrote. “Latino voters are still watching, but they are no longer waiting.”
Madrid sees a deeper problem for both parties: “We’re watching two parties in transition,” he said. “Neither one is winning these voters.”
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