Scott Wiener has surged into a commanding position in the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi, emerging as the clear front-runner in California’s 11th Congressional District after the state’s all‑party primary on June 2, which has advanced Wiener and Pelosi-backed Connie Chan to a November runoff.
Key Points
- Wiener and Chan have advanced to the general election under California’s top-two system
- Wiener led decisively despite Pelosi’s late endorsement of Chan
- Prediction markets give Wiener a clear edge
- Polling showed an obvious front-runner and a competitive race for second
With about 50 percent of votes counted, the Democratic state senator led with 41 percent. Chan, a San Francisco supervisor, followed with 29 percent. Meanwhile former congressional staffer Saikat Chakrabarti trailed with 15 percent, failing to advance under California’s top‑two system, which sends the two highest vote‑getters—regardless of party—to the general election.
Preelection polling aligned closely with the result—with Wiener consistently leading, while the fight for second remained tight until late in the race. Prediction markets also reinforce Wiener’s advantage. As of Tuesday, Kalshi showed him with a 61 percent chance of winning, compared with 39 percent for Chan.
Pelosi’s late endorsement of Chan marked a rare intervention in a local race for the U.S. representative and has raised questions about her enduring influence within the Democratic Party. Pelosi—who has served in Congress since 1987, including as speaker of the House—announced in November that she would not seek reelection. Tuesday’s result provides the first real measure of how much weight her backing still carries.
Newsweek contacted Chan, Wiener and Chakrabarti for comment via email on Wednesday outside regular working hours.
Wiener Builds Clear Lead as Chan Secures Second Spot
Half-counted results from Tuesday’s primary show Wiener comfortably ahead with 44,521 votes. Chan followed with 30,887 votes, while Chakrabarti received 16,118.
The primary sets up a Democrat‑versus‑Democrat general election in the San Francisco‑based seat that markets favor Wiener to win.
Polling Consistently Pointed to Wiener Advantage
In the lead-up to the primary, polling consistently showed Wiener in a strong position.
An EMC Research survey of 542 likely voters conducted May 3-7 for Families for an Affordable SF via mixed-mode outreach found Wiener at 38 percent, Chan at 22 percent and Chakrabarti at 21 percent, placing Chan and Chakrabarti within the margin of error in a tight race for second.
A Sextant Strategies poll of 819 likely voters conducted April 28 to May 3 via text message and email, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, put Wiener at 40 percent, Chakrabarti at 18 percent and Chan at 17 percent.
Meanwhile, a Lake Research Partners survey conducted for Chan’s campaign between April 29 and May 3 reinforced Wiener’s dominance, placing him at 47 percent to Chan’s 20 percent.
Across polls, the pattern held: a clear front-runner and a volatile contest for second.
Pelosi Endorsement Helps—but Doesn’t Shift the Race
When Pelosi endorsed Chan just two weeks before the primary, it broke with decades of political instinct.
The former speaker has rarely intervened in local races, let alone to rescue a struggling campaign.
For almost 40 years, Pelosi has defined San Francisco politics while reshaping the national Democratic Party. Her late endorsement was widely seen as an effort to steady a faltering campaign and secure a spot for Chan in November’s election.
Wiener, who entered the race with broader support and stronger name recognition, was dismissive of the endorsement’s impact.
“It was not surprising to us that the Speaker Emerita endorsed Supervisor Chan,” he previously told Newsweek. “Ultimately, I have my own relationship with the voters.”
David McCuan, a political scientist at Sonoma State University, said the move was designed to “give the Chan campaign a boost” after it had “underwhelmed in the retail politics of being on the ground.”
Chan framed her campaign around cost-of-living concerns, telling Newsweek her focus is on “delivering those solutions and lowering the cost of living for Americans,” particularly on issues such as utility bills, education and health care.
While Pelosi’s backing helped at the margins, it did not reshape the race. Though Chan managed to beat out Chakrabarti for a seat in the general election, she failed to close the gap against Wiener.
Markets Signal Wiener Edge Heading Into November
Prediction markets now reflect that dynamic. Kalshi traders give Wiener roughly a two-in-three chance of ultimately winning the seat, while Chan trails as a clear underdog.
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