Rising jet fuel prices are emerging as a significant headwind for the global travel industry just months ahead of the World Cup, raising concerns about higher airfares, reduced international demand, and softer booking trends for short-term rentals in the 11 U.S. host cities and surrounding regions.
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the Iran war began, prompting some airlines to pass higher operating costs on to consumers, while travelers may respond by becoming more selective or shortening their trips as long-haul flights grow more expensive.
As a result, both international visitor traffic and the short-term rental market—which typically depends on surges in event-driven tourism—could face pressure at a time when demand had been expected to spike.
Mahmood A. Khan, a professor in the Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Pamplin College of Business at Virginia Tech, tells Realtor.com® that he believes airfares will likely go up due to the Iran war and rising fuel prices.
“People might choose vacation destinations that are closer to their homes to cut down on expenses,” he says.
While Khan believes devoted World Cup fans are unlikely to cancel their travel plans, he says many may shorten their trips to reduce costs.
According to Tourism Economics, the World Cup is expected to bring around 1.24 million international visitors to the U.S. during the tournament period, which runs from June 11 to July 19.
Geopolitical tensions add to travel uncertainty
Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, tells Realtor.com, “The World Cup 2026 is a large-scale event touching 11 major markets in the U.S. It’s a noisy, uncertain period building up to the event, and traveler concerns and negative sentiment raise the stakes. The Middle East conflict ramps up some of the sentiment effects, underscoring preexisting concerns for some.”
Ryan continues, “The Middle East conflict risks extending last year’s 5.5% decline in U.S. inbound arrivals to this year, adding elevated fuel costs, air travel disruption, and pressure on discretionary spending to a mix of already challenging sentiment toward the U.S. An extended conflict would sustain negative headwinds and could contribute to a second year of declining U.S. inbound visits.”
Anna Marie Presutti, the chief executive of the San Francisco Travel Association, told The New York Times she thought that travel demand in San Francisco hasn’t yet risen to its full potential because the war in Iran is complicating travel for fans from Jordan and Qatar, two teams that are playing there.
Citizens from several countries face U.S. entry restrictions under policies introduced during the Trump administration, while some African nations are subject to stricter visa requirements, including pilot programs that have required certain travelers to post bonds of up to $15,000.
Even so, Ryan says he remains confident the World Cup will bring incremental visitors to the U.S. and boost hotel and short-term rental performance, as many fans are still going to find a way to see matches in person.
Mixed outlook for hotels and short-term rentals
But Vijay Dandapani, president of the Hotel Association of New York City, says a combination of pressures is already causing some travelers to scale back spending. He cites expensive match tickets, rising airfare, inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran, visa-related challenges, and added friction in the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ETSA) process for visa-waiver travelers.
“One-off events like FIFA are never the cornucopia promised,” he says. “FIFA has estimated 1.2 million visitors to New York City—a number that is highly unlikely to come to pass.”
Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA—a firm that compiles and analyzes Vrbo and Airbnb data, tells Realtor.com that short-term rental demand has remained relatively resilient so far.
“We haven’t noticed any big downward trends in short-term rental bookings for the World Cup. In fact, it seems like we’re doing a little bit better than hotels in this regard,” he says, adding that Miami demand is up 57%.
Airbnb tells Realtor.com that host earnings are projected to total nearly $156 million for the event.
Airbnb hosts in World Cup cities are projected to earn approximately $4,000, or $262 per night, on average during the tournament, according to a recent Deloitte analysis.
But Brad Greiner, founder of Open Air Homes, which manages about 70 short-term rentals in Southern California, tells Realtor.com, “We are definitely concerned about rising costs of oil and how it will affect travel.”
He says that, so far, Los Angeles has had lower demand in general for the World Cup than he was expecting. “I am confident our homes will book, but as the games approach, if economic uncertainty remains high, along with high ticket pricing, higher travel costs, and just inflation in general, we have a plan in place to slowly bring down our rates to ensure high occupancy,” he says.
Scott Yesner, founder of the short-term rental management company Bespoke Stay, says some operators are already feeling pressure after pricing aggressively.
“For some operators, there is absolutely panic setting in—and that’s understandable,” he tells Realtor.com. “Those are the properties that got ahead of themselves, pricing as if the World Cup was going to be a Pope visit or Taylor Swift-level event where you could truly name your price. When the bookings didn’t materialize at those rates, panic was probably inevitable.”
Yesner says he doesn’t think the war itself is what’s keeping people away. “A true soccer fan, someone who has been dreaming about attending a World Cup for years, is not going to let a geopolitical conflict on the other side of the world stop them from getting on a plane,” he says.
However, he acknowledges that uncertainty—particularly around air routes and visas—is having a real impact on planning.
“You’ve got airspace closures over major Gulf hubs … visa complications … and ultimately a lot of uncertainty,” he says. “That uncertainty is paralyzing for trip planning, even for motivated fans.”
Outlook still fluid ahead of tournament
Gallagher adds that the situation in Iran remains volatile, with many travelers delaying decisions in hopes of improved conditions.
“It’s only been maybe 50 days of this,” he says. “People have been deferring making big changes to their plans on the hopes that we’ll have a swift resolution.”
Gallagher notes that while there have been numerous short-term rental cancellations in the Middle East due to the conflict, AirDNA has not seen a comparable trend in the United States.
“Knock on wood, there’s a lot of promise with this recent ceasefire, so we’ll see,” he says.
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