Republican Representative Thomas Massie’s primary in Kentucky has become more than a local race—it is now the most expensive House primary in U.S. history and a high-stakes proxy war over the future of the Republican Party.
Few Republicans in Congress have aggravated President Donald Trump as much as Massie, who has often criticized his administration. The president has made a point of seeking to oust Massie, backing his GOP primary challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer.
But, while the president still holds sway in influencing primary outcomes, as was evidenced by recent results in Louisiana and Indiana, several figureheads of the MAGA universe, such as Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado, have nonetheless openly defied the president—putting in peril their political future, if not existence—and backed the embattled Kentucky congressman—highlighting the cracks in the movement.
“If Massie goes down, especially following the defeat of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and several Indiana state senators in recent days and weeks, Trump’s influence will be further highlighted and increasingly feared; but, if Massie survives, Trumps firm grip on his party might be seen as loosening and his sinking approval ratings will be cited as cause.” Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas, told Newsweek.
Newsweek reached out to Massie by email outside of normal business hours.
MAGA Infighting
Massie, widely seen as one of the more conservative Republicans in Congress, has argued that he represents a strand of Trump-era politics rooted in non-interventionism, fiscal restraint, and skepticism of government power—priorities that helped define Trump’s earlier campaigns and the wider MAGA movement as a whole.
But he has broken away from Trump on several issues, including regarding the war in Iran, the president’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” package, and the administration’s handling of files associated with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Trump has noticed…
“Bad Congressman Tom Massie voted against Tax Cuts, the Border Wall, our Military and Law Enforcement… The Worst Republican Congressman in History. Kentucky, vote the bum out on Tuesday,” he wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.
The president’s endorsements have long carried significant influence in Republican primaries.
And yet, several high-profile MAGA figures have defied Trump by expressing support for Massie, sometimes at the risk of becoming the target of the president’s wrath themselves.
Colorado Republican Representative Lauren Boebert—dubbed a “MAGA warrior” by Trump when he endorsed her reelection bid—openly backed Massie in the final days before Kentucky’s Republican primary the 4th congressional district on Tuesday.
She traveled to Kentucky and campaigned alongside him at multiple stops, praising him and calling him a reliable ally in Congress.
Kyle Rittenhouse, whom MAGA had hailed a gun rights hero after he fatally shot two people and wounded another during a Black Lives Matter protest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in August 2020, also voiced his support for Massie.
The 23-year-old, who was acquitted of all charges in 2021, drew backlash from members of the Make America Great Again movement after an appearance at a Massie campaign event in Florence on Friday.
Vince Langman, a self-described MAGA “deplorable,” wrote, “Wow! Kyle Rittenhouse turned out to be a complete douchebag, we should’ve left him to the liberal wolves in 2020!”
It was one of many messages along the same line posted online.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose falling-out with Trump over the handling of the Epstein filers has been loud and well documented, also publicly encouraged support for Massie and argued he still represented America First politics.
“[Trump is] attacking REPUBLICAN Thomas Massie with one of the most conservative voting records in the House…And all the weak Republicans in the House stay silent refusing to utter even a word of support for their ‘friend’ Thomas Massie.
“Shame on every one of you. Cowards. You make me sick.”
This support for Massie has extended online. Evan Kilgore, who describes himself as an “American exceptionalist” wrote to his 180,000-plus followers: “I stand with Lauren Boebert. I stand with Thomas Massie. I stand with Marjorie Taylor Greene. I stand with Tucker Carlson. I stand with Candace Owens.
“I didn’t leave MAGA. MAGA left me. Donald Trump has betrayed us all.”
Conservative hosts Carlson and Owens have also clashed with the president.
The Trump Effect
While backing Massie, Boebert made a point of saying she was supportive of both Massie and Trump.
“Below is my friend Thomas Massie. He loves America and is fighting to save it. Also below is my friend and President, Donald Trump. He’s put his life on the line to save this great country.
“I support both of these men. I’ve worked with both to preserve freedom and liberty. And if that makes you angry, bless your heart.”
That obviously didn’t spare her from suffering Trump’s wrath, sprinkled with a primary threat.
On Truth Social on Saturday, he wrote: “Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District…
“Boebert is campaigning for the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman in the History of our Country, Thomas Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky, and anybody who can be that dumb deserves a good Primary fight!”
Boebert quickly reacted to Trump’s post, writing: “Yes, I saw the President’s post. No, I’m not mad or offended.
“I knew the risks when I agreed to stand by my friend Thomas Massie. I was, and will be, America First, America Always, and MAGA. Onward.”
Still, the risks are real as Trump’s influence over the GOP and primary races remains, despite his approval rating suffering from the grind of the White House, including among his own supporters who have been dismayed by what they see as an interventionist war in Iran as well as the handling of the Epstein files—epitomized by Greene’s retirement from Congress.
Just this past weekend, another Trump critic, GOP Senator Bill Cassidy, lost to a Trump-backed challenger in Louisiana.
Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in February 2021 during his second impeachment trial. He failed to make the runoff, finishing behind Representative Julia Letlow, who capitalized on the former president’s endorsement.
And, on May 5, Trump-backed challengers won at least five of the seven Indiana Republican state Senate primaries in which the president targeted senators who opposed his mid-decade congressional redistricting plan.
What Happens If Massie Wins—or Loses
Speaking on ABC News’ This Week on Sunday, Massie struck a defiant tone: “I’m the only one they haven’t been able to bully,” he said, adding: “I’m ahead in the polls, and they’re desperate … That’s why the president’s losing sleep and tweeting about this.”
The outcome of the race could carry sharply different signals for the Republican Party.
A Massie defeat would reinforce Trump’s dominance, sending a clear message to Republican lawmakers that dissent carries serious political risk—particularly in primaries where the president’s endorsement can still mobilize voters and donors.
But a Massie victory, while not necessarily signaling a full break from Trump, could suggest limits to that influence, especially in districts where incumbents have strong local support.
According to multiple outlets citing AdImpact, the race is the most expensive House primary battle in U.S. history. Outside groups and national Republicans have spent more than $32 million on ads.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K, told Newsweek: “If Republicans in Kentucky reject Massie out of hand, it’s likely his influence will disappear alongside his Congressional career.
“Voters will have confirmed the Trumpist vision as being the core of modern Republicanism.
“But a Massie success as a thorn in the president’s side could embolden other legislators to be more critical of the president or, more likely, embolden voters across the country to reject this iteration of Republicanism when they get the chance to vote.”
Polls and Betting Odds
Massie is slightly ahead of Gallrein, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent, in the latest polling for Big Data Poll of Kentucky’s fourth district. This was a dip in support from the 52.4 percent he had last month, compared with Gallrein’s 47.6 percent.
Gallrein also led the latest poll from Quantus Insights. It found that 53 percent of respondents planned to support him, compared to 45 percent who planned to vote for Massie. 2 percent were undecided. It surveyed 908 likely voters May 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, according to betting platform Kalshi, at the time of writing, Massie has a 45 percent chance of becoming Kentucky’s next Republican nominee while Massie is charging ahead with odds of 58 percent.
Another betting platform, Polymarket, carries similar odds. Massie has a 43 percent chance of success and Gallrein has odds of 58 percent.
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