Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter.
Welcome to the best week of the year for college hoops junkies!
We’ll have plenty more both in this newsletter and at Newsweek’s sports betting vertical throughout the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament, including upset picks, injury news, notable line movement and more.
For right now, I’m choosing to publish my 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament bracket picks and analysis for every game*.
Judge the lack of early-round upsets in this bracket all you want, but if you look at the betting lines for the 3 vs. 14, 4 vs. 13 and 5 vs. 12 matchups, you’ll see that this is not looking like a good year for would-be party-crashers.
I do, however, expect a few more surprises than last year when it comes to who reaches the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four. Surely, “less chalky than 2025” isn’t too much to ask for, is it?
*Actually, on second thought, not every pick is going to require an explanation, but I will share a bit of the thought process behind all the big decisions.
Spoilers here for anyone pressed for time:
Sweet 16
East Region: Duke (1), St. John’s (5), Michigan State (2), UCLA (7)
South Region: Florida (1), Vanderbilt (5), Illinois (3), Houston (2)
West Region: Arizona (1), Arkansas (4), Gonzaga (3), Purdue (2)
Midwest Region: Michigan (1), Texas Tech (5), Tennessee (6), Iowa State (2)
Elite Eight
Duke (1), UCLA (7), Florida (1), Illinois (3), Arizona (1), Gonzaga (3), Michigan (1), Iowa State (2)
Final Four
Duke (1), Florida (1), Arizona (1), Iowa State (2)
You’ll have to stick with us til the end for our Final Four and National Championship Game picks…
East Region (Washington, DC) — Winner: Duke
First Round
- 1) Duke vs. 16) Siena
- 8) Ohio State vs. 9) TCU
- 5) St. John’s vs. 12) Northern Iowa
- 4) Kansas vs. 13) Cal Baptist
- 6) Louisville vs. 11) South Florida
- 3) Michigan State vs. 14) North Dakota State
- 7) UCLA vs. 10) UCF
- 2) UConn vs. 15) Furman
Most of these are fairly self-explanatory. Ohio State-TCU is as much of a coin flip as any first-round matchup, IMO, but I’ll go with prolific second-team All-Big Ten guard Bruce Thornton to get the Buckeyes, who are 2.5-point favorites, to the second round.
Louisville could go on a real run in this tournament if G Mikel Brown Jr. is in the lineup, but the uncertainty around his status has me leaning toward USF right now.
The Bulls have won 14 of their last 15 games, including 11 in a row, making them one of the few double-digit seeds I like to advance, especially given how much Louisville relies on 3-point shooting (the Cardinals take 52.8 percent of their shots from deep).
Second Round
- 1) Duke vs. 8) Ohio State
- 5) St. John’s vs. 4) Kansas
- 3) Michigan State vs. 11) South Florida
- 2) UConn vs. 7) UCLA
Duke will certainly miss point guard Caleb Foster against Thornton and Ohio State. Still, I’m not picking the Blue Devils to bow out to a Buckeyes squad that lost 12 games this year.
Kansas has a tantalizing ceiling if you expect to see Darryn Peterson’s best basketball of the season. Personally, though, I’m going with the safer play in St. John’s, which just blew out UConn for the Big East tournament title.
I like MSU to take care of South Florida, and my biggest upset of this weekend is UCLA over UConn. The Bruins will be a team no one wants to see if Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent are healthy, and UConn strikes me as a vulnerable 2-seed.
Sweet 16
- 1) Duke vs. 5) St. John’s
- 3) Michigan State vs. 7) UCLA
If this matchup comes to fruition, Cameron Boozer’s showdown with SJU big man Zuby Ejiofor will be one of the better individual battles of the tournament. St. John’s should be able to hang with Duke, but the Johnnies aren’t a good enough jump-shooting team to bounce the Blue Devils.
A third clash between Michigan State and UCLA would be fascinating. The Bruins were blown out by the Spartans in February, but they won the rematch in impressive fashion in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.
I’d feel much better about this if I knew Bilodeau and Dent were going to be 100 percent healthy, but I’m going to roll the dice on the Bruins giving us at least one surprise team in the Elite 8 anyway.
Elite 8: 1) Duke vs. 7) UCLA
I entertained picking Duke to get eliminated from the Big Dance relatively early before the ACC Tournament got underway. But this team was impressive without two starters en route to the ACC tournament title, and big man Patrick Ngongba II should be back this weekend.
The Blue Devils will be too much for UCLA, and they’ll return to the Final Four with a chance to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss to Houston.
South Region (Houston) — Winner: Florida
First Round
- 1) Florida vs. 16) Lehigh or Prairie View A&M
- 8) Clemson vs. 9) Iowa
- 5) Vanderbilt vs. 12) McNeese
- 4) Nebraska vs. 13) Troy
- 6) North Carolina vs. 11) VCU
- 3) Illinois vs. 14) Penn
- 7) Saint Mary’s vs. 10) Texas A&M
- 2) Houston vs. 15) Idaho
Iowa strikes me as a safe bet to take down Clemson, as Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz will easily be the best player on the court.
I think VCU has a great chance to beat a North Carolina squad that has not been the same without superstar freshman Caleb Wilson, particularly in games played outside of Chapel Hill. It’s telling that the Rams are just 2.5-point dogs, while fellow 11-seed USF is catching 5.5 points vs. Louisville.
I don’t have a strong take on Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M, but coach Randy Bennett’s Gaels often struggle this time of year against teams as athletic as the Aggies.
Otherwise, I expect a chalky, drama-free opening round in the South.
Second Round
- 1) Florida vs. 9) Iowa
- 4) Nebraska vs. 5) Vanderbilt
- 3) Illinois vs. 11) VCU
- 2) Houston vs. 10) Texas A&M
I expect Florida, Illinois and Houston to comfortably win their second-round matchups.
Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska is a tough one to predict right now, but I am just a bit higher on Vandy, especially after what the Commodores did to Florida in the SEC Tournament.
Sweet 16
- 1) Florida vs. 5) Vanderbilt
- 2) Houston vs. 3) Illinois
Speaking of Vanderbilt and Florida, the third matchup of the season between these two teams would make for a fascinating Sweet 16 contest.
If they do meet again, I’m expecting a much better showing from the reigning national champs, who turned it over 14 times and made just 5-of-17 3-point attempts in their surprising loss last Saturday.
In the other South Region semifinal, I expect Illinois’ size to pose major problems for the Cougars. Picking against Houston — especially in its own backyard — is risky, but the Cougars’ lack of depth down low will prevent them from making another deep run.
Elite 8: 1) Florida vs. 3) Illinois
Illinois could absolutely upset the Gators if star freshman Keaton Wagler is at his best. That being said, I expect Florida’s dominant frontcourt to control this matchup and secure a return trip to the Final Four.
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West Region (San Jose) — Winner: Arizona
First Round
- 1) Arizona vs. 16) Long Island
- 8) Villanova vs. 9) Utah State
- 5) Wisconsin vs. 12) High Point
- 4) Arkansas vs. 13) Hawaii
- 6) BYU vs. 11) NC State or Texas
- 3) Gonzaga vs. 14) Kennesaw State
- 7) Miami vs. 10) Missouri
- 2) Purdue vs. 15) Queens (NC)
The West strikes me as the region that is the least likely to feature any real upsets.
High Point and Hawaii are among the most intriguing mid-majors in this tournament. But unfortunately for them, the 4- and 5-seeds we’ve seen go home early in this tournament rarely had weapons in the backcourt like Razorbacks superstar Darius Acuff Jr. or Wisconsin’s veteran duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.
Second Round
- 1) Arizona vs. 9) Utah State
- 4) Arkansas vs. 5) Wisconsin
- 3) Gonzaga vs. 6) BYU
- 2) Purdue vs. 7) Miami
BYU will be a popular pick to take down Gonzaga, but I like the Bulldogs to survive, even if AJ Dybantsa stays hot. Arizona is as deep and balanced as anyone, which makes the Wildcats a safe bet to reach at least the Sweet 16.
Wins by Wisconsin and/or Miami would not surprise me, but Purdue has the experience in March to win a close one vs. the Canes. Meanwhile, the SEC tourney champs are too hot for me to pick against them, though I think their matchup against the Badgers will go down to the wire.
Sweet 16
- 1) Arizona vs. 4) Arkansas
- 2) Purdue vs. 3) Gonzaga
Arkansas is playing well enough right now to beat anyone, but Arizona is my pick here. Ultimately, I like the Wildcats’ depth to make a difference against a Razorbacks squad that is seven-deep in the wake of Karter Knox’s season-ending knee injury back in February.
I’m probably going to change my mind on Purdue vs. Gonzaga multiple times this week, but right now, I like the Bulldogs to limit the Boilermakers, especially if the Zags welcome back versatile big man Braden Huff. He has a chance to return from a knee injury if his team makes it this far, according to Theo Lawson of the Spokesman Review.
Elite 8: 1) Arizona vs. 3) Gonzaga
I’m high on the Bulldogs, but I don’t see them getting past Arizona.
Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas should be able to neutralize Bulldogs star big man Graham Ike. If that happens, I don’t see Mark Few’s team pulling off the upset.
Midwest Region (Chicago) — Winner: Iowa State
First Round
- 1) Michigan vs. 16) Howard or UMBC
- 8) Georgia vs. 9) Saint Louis
- 5) Texas Tech vs. 12) Akron
- 4) Alabama vs. 13) Hofstra
- 6) Tennessee vs. 11) SMU or Miami (Ohio)
- 3) Virginia vs. 14) Wright State
- 7) Kentucky vs. 10) Santa Clara
- 2) Iowa State vs. 15) Tennessee State
The top dogs in this region all seem like good bets to avoid an early exit. A Georgia win over Saint Louis wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ll go with Robbie Avila and the Billikens in a close one.
I’m also tempted to take SMU to upset Tennessee, but I’m not quite there on the Mustangs, who have been all over the place down the stretch.
Second Round
- 1) Michigan vs. 9) Saint Louis
- 4) Alabama vs. 5) Texas Tech
- 3) Virginia vs. 6) Tennessee
- 2) Iowa State vs. 7) Kentucky
Saint Louis is going to have a hard time with Michigan’s size and athleticism, IMO, and that’s probably an understatement.
Texas Tech has been dangerous, even without JT Toppin, but Bama would be my pick with Aden Holloway in action. Without him (I’m assuming his arrest this week means his season is over), however, I like Texas Tech.
Tennessee is well-suited to upset Virginia in a rock fight between two of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation.
Kentucky’s resume features some impressive wins, but the Wildcats have a tough matchup against the Cyclones, who should be able to force enough turnovers to reach the second weekend.
Sweet 16
- 1) Michigan vs. 4) Alabama
- 2) Iowa State vs. 6) Tennessee
Michigan will be able to get enough stops to handle Alabama, while Iowa State — which nearly took down Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament last weekend — is a good bet to get by Tennessee.
Elite 8: 1) Michigan vs. 2) Iowa State
Michigan had the shortest odds to win it all for most of this season, but without top 3-point shooter L.J. Cason, I don’t see the Wolverines getting past Iowa State in the Midwest Regional Final.
Iowa State is as well-suited as anyone to take advantage of Michigan’s turnover issues. I expect that to make the difference in this one, giving us one team in the Final Four that isn’t a 1-seed.
2026 NCAA Men’s Final Four Picks
Florida vs. Duke
The Blue Devils and Gators met back in early December at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke won that one 67-66 in a defensive battle.
Florida is on the short list of schools with the size to limit Boozer, though the Gators have to prove they can do it after he torched them for 29 points in the first meeting.
Florida’s guards, it should be noted, are playing much better now than they were early this season. As long as Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have solid nights (they combined to shoot 8-for-26, with 1 assist and 5 turnovers in the loss to Duke), Florida should be able to come out on top in another defensive struggle.
I would likely take Duke if we knew that PG Caleb Foster would be in action, but his possible absence makes the Gators my pick based on what we know right now.
Arizona vs. Iowa State
The Wildcats beat the Cyclones twice in the regular season, but they needed a buzzer-beater to win the second meeting in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament.
Iowa State will keep this matchup close, but I trust this Arizona team to take down its Big 12 rival again.
National Title Game: Arizona Over Florida
Arizona is arguably the deepest and most versatile team in the country, with seven players who average at least 9 points per game.
The Wildcats have the size to hold their own against Florida in the paint, and I trust Arizona guards Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley to outplay Fland and Lee in a rematch of the regular season opener, which Arizona won 93-87.
Remember, somehow, Arizona won that one despite shooting just 2-for-5 from 3-point range.
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