A year ago, there was reason to believe that President Joe Biden was on the cusp of a major geopolitical victory, coaxing Israel and Saudi Arabia into a peace arrangement that could be game-changing for the Middle East. All that has crumbled into dust, with the latest lowlight being Iran firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel this week.
The world is now bracing for Israel’s counterstrike, with even the normally cautious U.S. administration saying it will work with Israel to make sure it is severe. The region is now in darkness, the entire world is on edge, and it is easy to despair. But there is a positive way forward, if the will can be summoned.
The real date to keep in mind is not so much Oct. 7—the anniversary of Hamas’ invasion of Israel and massacre of 1,200 that launched the war—but Nov. 6, the day after the presidential election in the United States. On that day the U.S. leadership will be freed of political constraints and might find the courage to bulldoze ahead with a paradigm shift.
First, let’s consider what just happened.
An Israel-Saudi deal would have been a win-win, perhaps especially for Israel—a smallish country with stupendous ambition whose 2022 per capita income surpassed that of Germany, France, and Britain and is a world-beater in tech innovation and attracting venture capital. It thought the Palestinian problem was contained and looked forward to a strategic partnership with the most important economy in the Arab Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s number-two oil producer, would finally get rehabilitation—no small thing after having produced most of the 9/11 terrorists, filled Europe with fanatical Wahhabi preachers, killed Washington Post pundit Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, saddled its people with a century’s worth of corrupt monarchy, and for decades dabbled in nonsense like denying women the right to drive and banning cinemas.
Instead, the Hamas massacre (and the taking of some 250 hostages) caused Israel to counter-invade, and its effort to remove Hamas from power in the territory is believed to have killed over 40,000 (perhaps a third militants); the IDF is now mired in an insurgency in a Gaza that has been thoroughly trashed. On Oct. 8, Hezbollah, like Hamas an Iranian-backed proxy, began attacking Israel from Lebanon with rockets, shells, and drones, displacing some 60,000 Israelis; this week, having assassinated most of the Hezbollah leadership, Israel launched a ground invasion of south Lebanon.
Meanwhile Yemen’s Houthi militia has been for most of that period attacking commercial vessels headed toward the Suez Canal, impeding a third of global container traffic and badly rattling Egypt’s hard currency revenue. Now Israel has been launching airstrikes on their major port and power stations, but the group is undeterred, sending “fighters” to lawless Syria, from which they plot to attack Israel and possibly destabilize Jordan, a Western ally.
In the West, Israel has been tarred and feathered. The International Criminal Court threatens arrest warrants against its leaders, the International Court of Justice has declared its West Bank presence illegal, progressives protest against it on campuses, and if not for the U.S. veto, it would be facing arms embargos and economic sanctions. Moody’s just downgraded its once top-notch rating to Baa1, which is the same level as Bulgaria’s.
So, Oct. 7 was not a bad day’s work for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (though we’re not exactly sure that he’s alive)! But for non-terrorists, including anyone who cares about the Palestinians, it is a grim anniversary that brings with it fears of even wider war. If Israel’s response to Iran is strong enough, a massive war between those two countries could draw in and distract the U.S. to a degree that tempts China to move against Taiwan and Putin to expand his Ukraine war to other countries.
Instead, I’d like to summon up the lessons of another global war—the last one. World War II was also one of human civilization’s lowest moments, brought about by fanatics who inevitably brought devastation upon themselves and their people. Still, many boons came out of it, driven by the work of rational, reasonable people.
The war weakened colonial powers, leading to massive decolonization; it spawned global institutions such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund; it launched a long era of peace and prosperity in Europe underpinned by NATO, facilitated by the Marshall Plan, and ultimately leading to the formation of the European Union; it spurred significant scientific and technological advancements; and finally, the atrocities of the Holocaust prompted a renewed commitment to human rights, culminating in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Genocide Convention, both from 1948 (the same year Israel was born—also not unrelated to the war).
So, rather than wallow in the annus horribilis that was, it may be more useful to consider how to pivot to solutions. And I have a few proposals.
The war in Gaza must end. But Israel cannot be expected to leave Hamas—whose military force has been decimated—in power.
The first addressee is Israel’s horrible government, which must understand that only the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority can run Gaza instead of Hamas—a path it has been blocking. Hamas must be forced to hand the reins to a revamped PA led by a credible figure (one-time PA enforcer Mohammed Dahlan is a candidate). Surviving Hamas leaders should be offered exile in exchange for the hostages, by Arab League demand. The West should make any assistance to Hamas a major international crime—including by Qatar and Turkey.
The Palestinians must receive some prospect for freedom from Israel, and a two-state process must begin, opening the way to an Israel-Saudi deal.
This will need to come with a massive rebuilding fund that will cost tens of billions of dollars and must be strictly overseen, for the Palestinians have been unreasonably corrupt. But there is a price to having made a mistake so enormous as having ever allowed Hamas to flower. Israel’s fears of attack from a West Bank-based state are justified, so it will have to be completely demilitarized for a long time. Moreover, there is no point in repeating the interminable negotiations of the past. Israel will never hand over half of Jerusalem to anyone else’s security control, nor will it allow descendants of refugees to immigrate. To get the Palestinians to accept this, they will no longer be required to sign any end-of-claims agreements. It is enough that they live in grudging peace and are disarmed. And in return for its sacrifice, Israel finally gets its peace deal with Saudi Arabia.
There must be zero tolerance for Iran’s jihadist project.
The Israel-Saudi peace deal answer to Iran’s jihadist chaos project. The Iranian’s criminal theocratic regime should be presented with a take-it-or-leave it offer by the West, hopefully backed by the moderate Sunni nations: end your nuclear program and hand over fissile material, cease all support for proxy groups around the region, and disband its long-range rocket program. Else it will be attacked, beginning with a blockade of its ports, targeted damage to its oil installations, and utter destruction of its nuclear facilities. There will also be significant support, including material backing, of opposition groups at home and abroad.
Lebanon must be fixed.
This failed state is a regional global problem, and it can no longer be treated as an Israeli one alone. The world must demand that the state of Lebanon control its territory, meaning implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701, which Lebanon itself agreed to. Hezbollah being allowed to use much of Lebanon as its playground of horrors is one of the most absurd aspects of the current order. Unless the world wants Israel to occupy much of the country and take out this trash, the global community must aid Lebanon or send a multinational peacekeeping force with a writ far more powerful than the current UNIFIL operation. There will also need to be a massive aid package—must of which is already parked and waiting in Saudi Arabia—to reboot the country’s economy. After that, the Houthis in Yemen should be squeezed dry.
Much of this plan will be seen as an assist for Israel, and that is tough to take, considering that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is toxic both domestically and abroad. But for him, this rose must have a thorn: in exchange for this grand reboot, and the risks that it entails, Israel should be compelled to immediately freeze its calamitous settlement project in the West Bank and enact a zero-tolerance policy toward illegal settlements and radical settlers tormenting the Palestinians.
It is in Israel’s interest to separate from the West Bank, and its right wingers are too dim to understand it. Unless they are put in the corner, the continued settlement will make Israel a binational state that cannot be called democratic. It is an oddity of the situation that Israel’s main stupidity is in the settlements in the West Bank and not the current brutality in Gaza.
None of this will be easy, and there is a temptation to just stay away. That is especially true after the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. But a third effort is needed, and this one makes sense. Business as usual is not only working, it is leading us to World War III.
Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former Chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
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