RAMIFICATIONS ABOUND
In 2006, the then-10 ASEAN member states signed the Framework Agreement on Visa Exemption to strengthen regional ties and deepen cooperation among countries in the bloc.
Timor-Leste, which formally joined ASEAN in October 2025, is not yet a signatory, although it already grants visa-free entry to citizens of several ASEAN countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore.
“Undoing this agreement could upset relations among ASEAN members particularly if Indonesia or Malaysia are targeting people of certain nationalities,” said Trubus.
The public policy expert noted that Malaysia and China currently have a reciprocal visa exemption agreement which allows citizens of both countries visa-free entry for up to 30 days per visit, with a maximum cumulative stay of 90 days within a 180-day period.
Meanwhile, Indonesians can travel to China visa-free for up to 240 hours – or 10 days – and to Japan for holders of electronic passports registered at the Japanese embassy or consulate prior to departure.
“Indonesia or Malaysia tightening the rules in violation of existing agreements could trigger retaliation. That is something governments must think about,” Trubus said, highlighting the fact that tourists from China and Japan contribute greatly to Indonesia and Malaysia’s tourism industries.
According to the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, more than 1.3 million visitors from China and 347,000 from Japan visited the country in 2025, contributing around US$1.6 billion and US$513 million to Indonesia’s economy respectively.
Tourism Malaysia recorded more than 4.66 million visitors from China and 416,000 from Japan visited Malaysia in 2025. On average, tourists in Malaysia spent around RM4,000 (US$1,008) per trip, according to tourism analysts cited by The Star.
Meanwhile, analysts warned that syndicates can still find multiple ways to circumvent any tightening of immigration regulations, including relocating operations to areas with weak law enforcement and high levels of corruption.
They could also increasingly recruit locally, luring people with promises of high-paying jobs in regions where poverty and unemployment remain high.
Syndicates may also force foreign recruits to travel through treacherous illegal routes along Indonesia and Malaysia’s porous land and maritime borders, where many migrants and trafficking victims have lost their lives over the years.
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