Former Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra leads California’s gubernatorial primary race in a new poll released days before Tuesday’s primary election, while Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are locked in a close battle for second place.
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same party.
The Golden State has been a Democratic stronghold in statewide elections. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried her home state by about 20 percentage points over President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The last Republican elected governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.
Who Is Running for California Governor?
California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and possible 2028 presidential candidate, is unable to run because of term limits, leaving open a race that has drawn national attention.
The leading candidates in the race include:
- Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who served as HHS secretary under President Joe Biden
- Chad Bianco, a Republican who serves as Riverside County sheriff
- Steve Hilton, a Republican political commentator and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron
- Matt Mahan, a Democrat who serves as mayor of San Jose
- Katie Porter, a Democrat who represented an Orange County district in Congress
- Tom Steyer, a Democratic businessman
- Tony Thurmond, a Democrat who serves as the state’s superintendent of public instruction
- Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democratic former Los Angeles mayor
Two contenders—former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee, ended their campaigns prior to the primary.
The field is dominated by Democrats but spans a range of ideological wings, along with some Republican contenders. Among Democrats, Becerra represents a more traditional party establishment lane, while Porter is running as a policy‑driven, anti‑corporate progressive known for her focus on consumer protection and oversight. Villaraigosa is widely viewed as a more centrist figure. Steyer, by contrast, is positioning himself as an outsider running on a populist progressive message, emphasizing climate policy and economic inequality while leveraging his personal wealth to finance an aggressive campaign.
Republicans in the race include Bianco and Hilton, who represent more traditional conservative and populist outsider wings of the party, respectively. Both face an uphill climb in a heavily Democratic state, though California’s top‑two primary system can create openings in a fragmented field. President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton last month.
Hilton told Newsweek in a phone interview Friday he is not taking anything for granted in the final stretch of the primary campaign. “I think the way I’m seeing it is that we’re confident but not complacent,” he said. “You know, we’re going to be fighting very hard right to the end because we just can’t take it for granted.”
He noted that while most polls show him in the top two, they are still “pretty tight.” Following Tuesday’s primary, the general election will take place in November.
What the New Poll Shows
The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey before Tuesday’s election found Becerra leading the field with 28 percent support. The race for second place was much tighter, with Steyer at 22 percent and Hilton at 21 percent.
Support dropped off among the remaining candidates, with Bianco receiving 12 percent and Porter and Mahan garnering 5 percent. Another 5 percent of voters were undecided.
When undecided voters were asked to decide who they would support, Becerra’s support remained at 28 percent, and Hilton and Steyer both received 23 percent.
The poll was conducted May 27-28 among 1,000 likely primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the Saturday release.
He continued: “If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
What Other Polls Show
The latest poll represents a 9-point increase in support for Becerra compared with a mid-May Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey. Steyer and Hilton also gained ground, rising 5 points and 4 points, respectively.
The earlier poll, conducted May 9-10 among 1,000 likely voters, found Becerra leading with 19 percent, while Hilton and Steyer were tied at 17 percent. Bianco received 11 percent support and Porter gained 10 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Becerra and Steyer have gained significantly across several Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics polls this year. Hilton has maintain fairly similar support, with upward growth. Porter’s share of support has dropped, as have undecided voters.
A University of California Berkeley poll of 5,472 likely voters conducted between May 19-24, found Becerra with 25 percent, Hilton with 21 percent, and Steyer with 19 percent, with the margin of error plus or minus 2 percentage points. Further down the ballot, the poll found Bianco with 11 percent, Porter with 7 percent, and Mahan 4 percent.
A PPIC Statewide Survey, conducted between May 14-18, of 986 likely voters, also found Becerra leading the ballot. The poll found him with 23 percent, followed by Hilton at 20 percent. Steyer received 15 percent, Bianco 13 percent, Porter 12 percent, Mahan 8 percent, and Villaraigosa 4 percent.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, meaning the three-point gap between Becerra and Hilton falls within the poll’s range and is not statistically definitive.
Recent polls offer relief to Democrats, as numerous early polls suggested there was a chance Hilton and Bianco, both Republicans, could advance to the general election as the numerous prominent Democrats threatened to split the vote.
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