PROGRESSIVES TAKE A HIT
Still, the result was surprising for Thitinan and for many observers expecting a better showing from the People’s Party, which had been pushing for a landslide victory to ensure it could form a government.
“The reform party won the election in 2023 so people are looking for its successor to do the same. But the results have been the opposite,” he said.
“This time the establishment, the pro-establishment party, has clearly won … something that is counter-intuitive for a lot of people waking up today.”
During the last election, the previous iteration of the People’s Party, Move Forward, may have won the most seats with 151, but was kept in opposition as other parties formed a majority coalition.
This time, the party led by Nattaphong Ruengpanyawut will not even be in those conversations, heading again back to those opposition benches, stung by a poor performance outside of Bangkok.
That is despite it winning, based on 94 per cent of the vote count, about 9.7 million party list votes, a clear margin over Bhumjaithai’s 5.9 million.
This clearly reflects the party’s ideological and policy-based support remains strong, said Somchai.
“But the system separates this support from constituency victories, meaning that a significant portion of public preference is not proportionately translated into political power,” he said.
The orange wave – the colour associated with the People’s Party – swept the Thai capital, winning every single seat. But the party failed to broaden its appeal much beyond urban centres, a fatal flaw for its electoral hopes, the experts said.
“The fact of the matter is, if you can’t penetrate deeply in the north and northeast, you will not win the election,” Kuhonta said.
Stithorn agreed that its strong performance on the party list reflects strength at an ideological level. But he said it will continue to run into a ceiling if it relies on momentum and emotion for change, rather than investing in “place-based politics”.
“The key lesson for the People’s Party is not simply that it needs to expand into the provinces. It needs to change how it does politics,” he said.
“Constituency elections are about people – about trust and personal relationships – and that still requires time and local networks to build.”
Thitinan said there will be a lot of questions about what went wrong for the party in the aftermath of this result. But the party may have also fallen victim to current circumstances and a general prevailing lack of appetite for political risk.
“I think Thais want at this time, stability, continuity and working with the devil they know, rather than something they don’t know.”
On Monday, Thailand’s National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) ruled that 44 former Move Forward lawmakers – now mostly with People’s Party – had committed serious ethical violations over their role in proposing amendments to the Criminal Code’s Section 112, the lese-majeste law.
They could face lifetime bans from politics.
For Pheu Thai, the scars left from a bruising result which saw it lose nearly half its seats may cut deeper. Its allocation will drop from 141 in 2023 to 74 based on unofficial results.
Its prime ministerial candidate Yodchanan Wongsawat – a nephew of Thaksin – was a fresh face for the party, despite his family ties to the Shinawatras, long the dominant force in populist politics in Thailand.
But its efforts at consolidating a stronghold in the north failed, with only three seats projected to be won – two in Chiang Rai and one in Sukhothai. It fared better in the north east, winning a tranche of constituencies throughout the Isan region.
While it held on to its traditional base there, it no longer enjoys the dominance it once did, Stithorn said.
“The party is now being squeezed from two sides: by the People’s Party in urban areas and by Bhumjaithai in the provinces,” he said.
Pheu Thai’s leader Julapun Amornvivat said at a press conference on Sunday night that the party must respect “the voice of the people”.
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