The Toronto Blue Jays can’t fully lock up the American League East this weekend, but taking at least two of three games from the New York Yankees would be massive.
Entering the series opener on Friday night, the Blue Jays led the Yankees by three games atop the East. The Boston Red Sox are only 3 1/2 back, so sweeping the Yankees wouldn’t inherently put things on ice for the Blue Jays, but their odds would skyrocket either way.
Toronto has dominated the season series to this point, winning seven games out of 10 and guaranteeing itself the tiebreaker against New York if necessary. But the Yankees are suddenly playing their best baseball when it counts.
Any edge the Blue Jays can get is crucial, and one writer has identified one of Toronto’s key contributors as an X-factor in this matchup.
On Friday, Sportsnet’s Nick Ashbourne noted centerfielder Daulton Varsho’s struggles at Yankee Stadium in the past as an outlier, saying his batted ball profile positions him to hit some balls out of the yard this weekend.
“Although Varsho doesn’t have a storied history at Yankee Stadium (.463 OPS in 11 games), that seems like a small-sample-size fluke,” Ashbourne wrote. “According to Statcast, Varsho’s career batted balls would be expected to clear the wall in the Bronx 109 times — a significantly higher number than his actual home run total (97).
“Of the 430 players with at least 100 plate appearances this season, his rate of balls pulled in the air (29.3 percent) ranks 15th. … Between Varsho’s typical defensive importance and the likelihood of the outfielder making use of New York’s short right-field porch, he should be an important figure in the series.”
Varsho has never faced Cam Schlittler or Luis Gil, the Yankees’ starters in the first two games of the series. Against Max Fried, New York’s ace and Sunday starter, he’s 0-for-4 with two punch-outs.
Essentially, Varsho has to do something he’s never done in actuality, but absolutely has shown the capability of doing. He needs to show up in the Bronx and torment the Yankees and their fans all weekend.
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