South Korea has already signalled it could get involved. President Yoon Suk Yeoul now says the country is not ruling out providing weapons directly to Ukraine – in what would be a departure from its longstanding policy of not providing arms to countries in conflict.
South Korea is technically still at war with its northern neighbour. Analysts have said Seoul is worried about North Korean troops gaining valuable combat experience and military know-how from Russia, as well as possible reciprocal support from Moscow to support Pyongyang’s nuclear arms ambitions.
“Depending on the level of North Korean involvement, we will gradually adjust our support strategy in phases,” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Nov 7.
There could be grave consequences if Seoul does follow through, warned Dr Alexey Muraviev, an associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University.
“We may end up having a … proxy conflict, where Ukraine is considered a proxy conflict between the two Koreas and allies,” he told CNA.
CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC DILEMMA
The developments have thrown into sharp relief the deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, which analysts say are making the Chinese uneasy.
A paper published on Nov 1 by researchers from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War suggests that Pyongyang may be using its growing alignment with Moscow to reduce its dependence on Beijing.
The report asserts that China has been using its influence to restrain North Korea’s aggression. As such, reduced Chinese leverage on Pyongyang is likely to destabilise the Korean Peninsula and pose a greater risk to the broader Asia-Pacific region.
Since the 1950s, Beijing has been Pyongyang’s most vital ally, providing trade, diplomatic support and military aid to the Kim regime. They share a mutual defence pact – China’s sole such accord with any country.
This was also the case for North Korea, up till June when it inked a security treaty with Russia that obligates both sides to provide military assistance “without delay” if either nation faces an armed attack. Pyongyang and Moscow have both ratified the accord.
North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia “weakens the narrative that China is a force for peace, in contrast to the US”, wrote Chinese foreign policy observer Reid Standish in a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty article published on Oct 30.
Mr Standish noted that the move undermines Beijing’s position that Western countries should stay out of Asian defence matters, now that “the Indo-Pacific is inserting itself into Europe’s security conversation”.
Analysts say this places China in a diplomatically challenging position.
On the one hand, the Russia-North Korea arrangement risks a bloc being formed. Inevitably including China, it would be placed against a US-South Korea-Japan alliance, said Mr Zhu Feng, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Nanjing University, in a Nov 6 report by British news outlet The Guardian.
“The problem is that kind of Cold War mentality is completely against the Chinese national interest. Today’s China is not the 1950s China,” he added.
On the other hand, Beijing stands to gain from a Russia-North Korea alliance as this would “certainly” put additional pressure on South Korea, Japan and the US, explained Dr Muraviev from Curtin University.
He believes the arrangement could also help stabilise the unpredictability of the North Korean regime.
“Why am I saying this? Because Kim Jong Un would not be able to do something adventurous or dangerously risky right now without having formal approval from the Kremlin,” he said.
“Putin right now doesn’t want to have … another war on his Eastern doorstep … I think that’s what the Chinese would also be feeling quite comfortable about.”
Whether it feels otherwise or not, Beijing has publicly said growing Russia-North Korea ties are their own business.
“North Korea and Russia are two independent sovereign states. How they develop bilateral relations is their own matter,” said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson on Nov 1.
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