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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting News, Analysis
The Bucs have been underrated since catching fire late in the 2023 season, and not even a Week 2 win on the road in Detroit this year has changed that.
QB Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year, and so far this season, he’s been even better than he was in 2023, with 984 yards passing, 8 TDs and 2 interceptions, with a completion percentage over 70, in four games.
All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has played just one game, and starting D-linemen Calijah Kancey has yet to play this season, while starting right tackle Luke Goedeke is also set to miss his fourth straight game.
Despite the injuries, the Bucs have been solid on both sides of the ball, with the exception of a puzzling Week 3 loss at home to the Broncos.
Atlanta arguably boasts the best secondary that Mayfield, Mike Evans and the Tampa passing game have seen this year, but this offense should still be effective as long as it can give him time to throw. The Bucs’ biggest weakness this season has been its pass-blocking, as Mayfield has already been sacked 15 times, including five times by the Lions in Week 2 and seven by the Broncos in Week 3.
Pass-blocking won’t get any easier on the road in Week 5, so the Bucs will need a strong effort on Thursday night in Atlanta to stay on track offensively.
Atlanta Falcons Betting News, Analysis
The Falcons’ season has already been a roller coaster, starting with an ugly Week 1 loss at home followed by a gutsy win over Philadelphia on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
The Atlanta defense has exceeded expectations so far, as it is allowing just over 21 points per game, but Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense has been up-and-down. In fact, Atlanta needed two non-offensive touchdowns (one on defense and one on special teams) to beat New Orleans at home last Sunday.
Defensively, the Falcons secondary has been as good as advertised, with Justin Simmons, Jessie Bates III and A.J. Terrell limiting the Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs and Saints, but Atlanta will be starting a third-string inside linebacker on Thursday night after injuries to starter Nate Landman and backup Troy Andersen. The latter had been playing excellent, earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week after recording 16 tackles and a pick-six against the Saints in Week 4.
Whether J.D. Bertrand, a fifth-round rookie, can hold up in place of Andersen against the Tampa Bay offense will be one of the biggest keys to this game.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction, Best Bets
Oddsmakers’ skepticism of the Bucs is nothing new, but it’s still hard to understand, even with Tampa Bay taking on Atlanta without three key starters in Winfield Jr., Kancey and Goedeke.
These two teams met twice last year in games decided by four points or less: Atlanta won 16-13 in Tampa, while the Bucs scored a 29-25 road win. Thursday night’s game feels like another tight matchup, especially given that Atlanta’s last three games this season were decided by a grand total of eight points.
Through four weeks, it’s a bit easier to trust what we’ve seen from Mayfield and the Bucs than Cousins, who has already thrown four pick this season, and the Falcons, which is why we like the Bucs to cover as 2.5-point dogs.
We also like the Over in this game, and anyone interested in this play should move fast, as the total has jumped from 43.5 to 44 at a few books as of late Thursday afternoon.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best Bets
- Bucs +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Over 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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