BEIJING: Growth in China’s factory output hit a six-month low last month as trade war pressures bit, official data showed Monday (Jun 16), while a bump in a key gauge of domestic consumption offered a rare bright spot for the economy.
The United States and China this month agreed to a temporary truce in a standoff that saw tariffs hiked to eye-watering levels and upended global supply chains.
But the impact of the row was highlighted by official figures showing industrial production rose just 5.8 per cent last month, below the 6.0 per cent predicted in a Bloomberg survey and its slowest pace since November.
It was also below a forecast-beating 6.1 per cent in April, according to the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
“Weaker external demand was partly to blame,” Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics said in note. “Despite the tariff truce, the contraction in industrial sales for export appears to have deepened last month.”
However, retail sales – a key gauge of consumer demand – grew 6.4 per cent year-on-year in May, the fastest since December 2023, according to the NBS.
This topped the 4.9 per cent forecast in the Bloomberg survey and was sharply up from April’s 5.1 per cent increase.
“It’s an encouraging sign of recovery, as policy support efforts filter through the economy,” Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING, said.
“However, a more sustainable consumption recovery will likely require a turnaround of consumer confidence, which remains much closer to historical lows than historical averages,” he added.
And Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote in a note that the retail sales figures “came as a surprise” – pointing to the possible impact of a government trade-in programme for consumer goods.
Read the full article here
