A similar logic applies to energy. A temporary disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is manageable. But a prolonged closure would raise global prices of everything from food to fertilisers. Ultimately, that would hurt China too, at a time when its economy is under strain.
Iran accounts for roughly 13 per cent of China’s seaborne crude imports, but the disruption to its supplies is not nearly as big a problem as it is for other countries, as the China Global South Project notes. Oil tracking data show that millions of barrels of Iranian crude have continued to flow – much of it to China now that Tehran is allowing some ships through.
Beijing has been working on a Plan B for a while. It has diversified its energy supplies, buying heavily from Russia despite Western sanctions, and building up a strategic reserve that will last several months, while investing aggressively in renewables.
PATIENCE IS THE BEST STRATEGY?
There is also no political scenario in which China could easily justify joining a US-led military coalition. Doing so would cut against decades of foreign policy built around non-interference. It would also undermine Beijing’s positioning as an alternative to Western interventionism – particularly in the Global South, where it has long cast itself as a counterweight to American hegemony.
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