This latest incident, however, is unique in two ways. First, it was aimed primarily at obstructing a visit to a formal diplomatic partner, not preventing engagement with an unofficial partner like the United States.
Second, it succeeded at blocking the visit altogether. The sudden denial of airspace by multiple countries left Taiwan with insufficient time to chart an alternative route and secure new permissions, forcing Lai to cancel the trip.
For Chinese pressure to force Taiwan’s president to cancel a trip is unprecedented. Lai’s cancelled trip to Latin America last year reportedly could have gone ahead with a lower-profile transit somewhere other than New York, but Lai cancelled it, citing domestic reasons.
Even the last-minute withdrawal of permission for Chen Shui-bian to refuel in Lebanon in 2006 – after the US denied him permission to transit – didn’t derail his Latin America visit. He was able to refuel in the United Arab Emirates instead.
A NEW TACTIC
This latest episode raises a critical question: Was the denial of airspace a one-off manoeuvre designed specifically to embarrass Lai, or does it represent a new tactic Beijing intends to deploy more regularly against Taiwan? The answer is likely somewhere in between.
There is no doubt that Beijing distrusts Lai and his formally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Undermining Lai’s credibility, including by preventing him from carrying out his diplomatic duties, is a clear objective of the Chinese government.
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