A NEW REALITY FOR US ALLIES IN ASIA
Mr Trump’s foreign policy approach has already begun to dramatically change America’s alliance structure in Europe. His stance on NATO and his direct engagement with Russia over Ukraine suggest a more transactional view of international partnerships.
Similarly, Mr Trump has long conceived of US overseas troop deployments as mercenary protection for which America should be paid. In his recent negotiations with Ukraine, for example, he framed his suggested US-Ukraine minerals deal as Ukrainian compensation for American aid.
His commentary about US allies in Europe suggests he does not feel compelled by treaty to defend them. If this anti-alliance approach extends to the Indo-Pacific, it will almost certainly ignite a regional arms race between China and the democracies near it.
It might also ignite Japanese-South Korean rivalry, given the substantial tension between these two. And it will likely lead to nuclear proliferation, as US allies doubtful of Mr Trump’s commitment to their security scramble to develop their own deterrent to China.
South Korea will probably be the first country in the region to feel renewed pressure. Japan is America’s most important regional partner, so Mr Trump will probably proceed cautiously with Tokyo. But South Korea is a smallish ally of middling importance to the US, so it may find itself under greater scrutiny.
As Mr Trump ramps up pressure on US allies, they all face the question of placating him with concessions, or drifting away from the US toward a more independent foreign policy line. In Europe, the latter option is hard. European defence spending is so low that the continent’s military capabilities and defence production capacity have atrophied. This has been Mr Trump’s core leverage over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in their recent tension. Europe is unable to replace American support for Ukraine, which Mr Zelenskyy knows.
South Korea, in contrast, does have the capability to go its own way. Its defence spending is twice the European average. Its military is large because of conscription and it has an excellent defence industrial base. It can mass produce shells, tanks, missiles, and so on. Should it come under pressure from the US, South Korea would be better placed to break with the Americans than Europe is.
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