The BN-PN state-level pact works in by-elections and state assembly polls because the stakes are low and the constituencies are numerous enough to satisfy all political parties.
In a general election, the math is more brutal. UMNO, PAS and Wawasan will all be vying for a minimum number of the 123 Malay-majority seats in the lower house to justify their relevance to their respective bases.
All three are basically competing for the same voter poll, and seat allocation would become a messy subject that could break the electoral pact that is still work in progress. A snap election would help PH exploit any BN-PN seat allocation fault line.
Should Mr Anwar wait, not only would BN and PN have the time to formalise their pact and work out a seat arrangement agreement that avoids multi-cornered fights and vote-splitting that would follow.
For Mr Anwar, the path of least resistance is also the path to a slow political death. In the run-up to the Johor state assembly elections, he argued that UMNO’s state pacts with PN did not invalidate the federal coalition and his government remained stable.
But that logic only goes so far. Each state loss erodes Mr Anwar’s authority, demoralises his PH base and signals to financial markets that his is a lame-duck administration.
What’s more, there could be more state battles. An election in Melaka, an UMNO stronghold, looms as the next test with a dissolution of the state assembly expected this month or in September. That could be followed by fresh polls in Perak, where PH and BN currently share power. Pahang, which is controlled by UMNO, could then follow suit.
Increasingly, Mr Anwar is finding himself trapped in a prison of his own making. He is running out of states and time.
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