Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC), a natural gas exploration and production company, is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q1 earnings on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings of $0.89 per share on revenue of $808 million. This would indicate more than double the earnings and a 25% revenue increase compared to the prior year’s $0.38 per share and $645 million, respectively. Historically, the stock has risen post-earnings in 50% of cases, with a median one-day gain of 2.3% and a peak increase of 9%.
Driven by surging demand for natural gas stemming from LNG exports, power generation, and AI growth, investors are likely to closely monitor the earnings report. A colder-than-expected winter in 2024–25 significantly reduced natural gas inventories, tightening supply and creating a more optimistic price environment. This shift bodes well for Range Resources, as the company stands to benefit from elevated gas prices. Moreover, with natural gas usage in data centers projected to quadruple by 2030—especially in the Northeastern U.S.—RRC is well-positioned both geographically and operationally to seize this major growth opportunity. The company currently holds a market capitalization of $8 billion, generated $2.4 billion in revenue over the past year, and posted $251 million in operating profit along with $266 million in net income. While much depends on how results compare to estimates, reviewing historical performance could provide an edge for event-driven traders.
Event-driven investors might find value in analyzing past patterns to inform pre- or post-earnings strategies. For those seeking upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative. This portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, delivering over 91% returns since inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Range Resources’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key takeaways regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings performance:
- Over the past five years, there have been 16 recorded earnings events, with 8 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, reflecting a 50% positive occurrence rate.
- When narrowed to the last 3 years, this rate drops slightly to 44%.
- The median return of the 8 positive cases was 2.3%, while the median for the 8 negative ones was -2.1%.
Additional statistics covering 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are summarized in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
For those pursuing lower-risk strategies (provided correlation is meaningful), it may help to examine relationships between short- and medium-term returns. Identifying the strongest correlations can guide trading decisions. For example, if 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, a trader might choose to go “long” for 5 days after a positive 1D return. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year trends. The metric 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D and 5D post-earnings returns.
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