Democrats Chances of Flipping Virginia as Spanberger Gets Fundraising Boost

Democrat Abigail Spanberger has built up a fundraising and polling advantage over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s gubernatorial race.

Newsweek reached out to the Spanberger and Earle-Sears campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Virginia’s gubernatorial race will be one of the first major electoral tests for Republicans during the Trump 2.0 era. Once a major battleground, Virginia has shifted toward Democrats over the past 20 years, though Republicans have proved competitive in the state’s off-year gubernatorial races.

The election will measure whether Republicans can hold onto people who shifted toward President Donald Trump in 2024, including Latino, Asian American and younger voters—or whether Democrats are winning them back before the 2026 midterms, when a third of senators and all members of the House of Representatives are up for reelection.

What to Know

Spanberger, a former member of Congress, is set to face off against Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, in the November race. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who narrowly won four years earlier, is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.

Spanberger raised more than $6.5 million from April to June and still has $14 million in the bank, according to data from the Virginia State Board of Elections. During that same period, Earle-Sears raised about $3.5 million with a closing balance of just under $3 million.

Both were unopposed for their party’s nomination. Primary elections were held on Tuesday for other offices such as lieutenant governor and attorney general. State Senator Ghazala Hashmi and former Delegate Jay Jones won the Democratic nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares did not face a primary challenge for his reelection. WRVA radio host John Reid was unopposed in the Republican lieutenant governor primary.

Polls have shown Spanberger with a lead over Earle-Sears for the general election.

A poll conducted by co/efficient for Founders Insight earlier this month showed Spanberger with a 3-point lead over Earle-Sears (46 percent to 43 percent).

Spanberger was viewed favorably by 45 percent of respondents, compared to 40 percent who viewed Earle-Sears favorably. Twenty-seven percent of respondents viewed each unfavorably. Seventeen percent were unsure of how they felt about Spanberger, while 11 percent said they had not heard of her. Meanwhile, 20 percent were unsure of their feelings toward Earle-Sears, and 13 percent had never heard of her, the poll found.

It surveyed 1,127 likely voters from June 8 to June 10, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.12 percentage points.

Some polls have suggested Spanberger has a more substantial lead in the race.

A Roanoke College poll found that 43 percent of respondents were planning to vote for Spanberger, compared to 26 percent leaning toward Earle-Sears. It still found that 28 percent were undecided, meaning it could narrow depending on how that sizable chunk of voters skews.

An earlier Roanoke poll found Spanberger with 39 percent, with Earle-Sears receiving support from 24 percent. It surveyed 690 residents from February 17 to February 20, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.66 percentage points.

It surveyed 609 registered voters from May 12 to May 19, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

Virginia backed Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly six percentage points in the 2024 presidential race, a slightly stronger showing for Trump than against Biden in 2020, when he lost by about 10 points. The state also has two Democratic senators. Historically, the party that loses the presidency gets a boost in the following gubernatorial race, but how strong that may be for Spanberger could depend on Trump’s approval.

What People Are Saying

Peyton Vogel, an Earle-Sears spokesperson, told The Associated Press: “Clearly the Spanberger campaign needs a lot of help attempting to erase Abigail’s bad voting record on issues that actually matter to Virginians. This race isn’t being bought—it’s being built on a message that matters.”

Veteran political scientist Larry Sabato previously told Newsweek: “The early bet is on Spanberger but it’s way too early to bet unless you have money to burn—or extra eggs to give away. Too many things can happen. If Trump is very unpopular as he was in 2017, it’s bound to help Spanberger as it helped [Former Governor Ralph] Northam in 2017. Just like Youngkin was assisted by Biden’s unpopularity in 2021.”

What Happens Next

The general election in Virginia is set for November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is “considered competitive races,” but that Spanberger “has an advantage.”