Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears trails Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger by 10 points in the race for the gubernatorial seat in Virginia, a new poll from Emerson College shows on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for additional comment.
Why It Matters
The 2025 Virginia governor’s race offers a pivotal test for both parties ahead of next year’s midterms. Virginia, which has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, saw Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin secure a narrow victory in 2021, signaling the state’s battleground status. How Democrats fare in efforts to reclaim the governor’s office could preview a national pattern and influence party strategies as the GOP strives to maintain control of the House and Senate while Democrats push for significant gains after a disappointing 2024.
What To Know
In the poll, Earle-Sears received 42 percent of the vote compared to Spanberger’s 52 percent. In a January survey by the pollster, the lieutenant governor garnered 41 percent and the former congresswoman won 42 percent, a noticeable swing in favor of Democrats.
The poll surveyed 725 likely Virginia voters on September 28 to September 29 and has a 3.6 percent margin of error.
According to an A2 Insights poll conducted from September 26 to September 28, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), the closest showing between the two in months.
The Emerson College poll also shows Spanberger with a 51 percent favorability rating versus a 38 percent unfavorable rating. Earle-Sears landed a 42 percent favorability score compared to a 44 percent unfavorable mark.
What People Are Saying
Spanberger, on X Thursday: “Virginians are already facing rising costs, and now — due to Trump’s government shutdown — 300,000+ Virginians may lose their paychecks. Now more than ever, Virginians deserve a Governor who will stand up for their jobs and lower costs — not one who only puts the President first.”
Earle-Sears, on X Wednesday: “Abigail Spanberger is extreme—on the border, on sanctuary for violent illegals, on letting men into girls’ locker rooms. Every position she takes puts Virginians in harm’s way.”
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email: “This would be a big reversal and loss for the Republicans. Youngkin’s victory four years ago was a similar loss for the Democrats. The current lead bodes well for the Democrats in November. It may reflect how the loss of the jobs of federal workers who live in Virginia and especially dissatisfaction with Trump’s actions and policies more broadly may have serious repercussions for Republicans in the governor’s race—and for Republicans in Virginia in 2026.”
What Happens Next
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election is set for November 4. Amid the tightening of poll margins and fluctuating voter sentiment, both candidates will intensify their campaigns as Election Day nears. Continued polling and shifts in campaign strategy may further influence the race’s trajectory.
Update 10/2/25, 11:51 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Shapiro.
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