Democrats and Republicans have turned to overseas voters as the potential deciding factor in what remains a tightly contested election.
Latest polling averages have shown the gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains around 2½ to 3 points—within the margin of error and therefore too close for either side to take any voters for granted.
That’s where Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas hope to make a difference. Each group, an official arm of its respective party, maintains canvassing efforts to inform Americans about their ability to continue voting and have a say in their homeland’s future.
The Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) reports that around 4.4 million Americans live overseas, but because of the lack of clear data on eligibility, the total number of voting Americans in that population remains an estimate at best. Some estimates have as many as 9 million Americans living overseas.
The FVAP believes that 2.8 million of those Americans are eligible. Only around 3.4 percent of them voted in 2022, and only around 8 percent voted in 2020. The greatest number of those voters live in Canada and the United Kingdom—around 605,000 and 298,000, respectively.
The next largest groups live in France and Israel, each with a population of around 150,000, followed by around 100,000 Americans who live in Japan.
Democrats Abroad, which relies entirely on volunteer participation, maintains committees in 52 different countries. Members of the group live in over 190 countries, according to its website.
The Windsor, Canada, chapter of Democrats Abroad, based near the border between Michigan and Canada, has canvassed voters in the Detroit-Windsor area, hitting 1,000 doors ahead of the final weeks and with plans to hit another 1,500 before November.
“We have been getting a great deal of support and encouragement and very little resistance,” David Shelton of the Windsor Chapter told columnist Jason Sattler, a member of the USA Today Board of Contributors from 2017 to 2021. “I find this notable because we are ‘cold knocking’ at every door on the streets we select.”
Democrats Abroad believes that Windsor could have over 20,000 eligible American voters. The group points to the previous presidential election, in which states such as Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were decided by tens of thousands of votes.
Democrats Abroad UK has rolled out its own initiative to try to tap the 200,000 or more voters living in London and other major British cities. The group has put up ads in bus stops and other high-traffic areas, but it has also looked to digital initiatives to reach voters and let them know they have a say in their homeland’s election, according to The Guardian.
The group has also looked to tap overseas university students, with many studying in Oxford, Cambridge or St. Andrews.
Trump has made overtures to these voters, offering tax breaks to Americans living overseas during a speech at the Detroit Economic Club earlier this month.
“You have to make sure that you are registered and you are going to vote because I’m going to take very good care of you,” he said in a video posted by Republicans Overseas CEO Solomon Yue.
However, the Republican Party has filed a series of lawsuits in battleground states aimed at isolating the overseas votes. A lawsuit filed in Pennsylvania demands that courts set aside all overseas ballots—including those from military voters—for additional verification, according to ABC News.
“We are already hearing military voters from all states who feel discouraged from participating, if they have concern that their ballot won’t even be counted,” Sarah Streyder, who is stationed in England because her husband serves in the Space Force, told reporters.
State officials have said the lawsuits represent nothing more than “an attempt to confuse and frighten people ahead of an important election,” assuring that any ballots sent out are eligible.
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