President Donald Trump has virtually erased the Democratic Party’s long-standing advantage with middle-class voters, according to a series of new polls.
Why It Matters
For decades, Democrats were widely regarded as the party of the middle class. In 1989, they held a dominant 23-point advantage over Republicans on the question of which party best represented middle-class interests, according to polling from NBC/CNBC.
But since then, the Democrats’ lead among the demographic has started to crumble, falling to +17 in 2016 and then +4 in 2022.
What To Know
The latest CNN/SSRS poling, conducted May 5-26 among 2,539 U.S. adults, showed the Democrats’ lead on perceived representation of the middle class has fallen even further, the party now leading the GOP by just 2 points, with the margin of error plus or minus 2.7.
Voters are increasingly aligning with Republican economic messaging. The May 2025 CNN/SSRS survey shows the Republican Party leading by 7 points when respondents were asked which party is closer to their economic views. While slightly down from an 11-point lead in November 2023, the margin remains substantial and well within the survey’s 3-point margin of error.
In a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll asking which party has the better economic plan, the GOP lead grew from +9 in May 2024 to +12 in May 2025, signaling increased confidence in Trump’s economic stewardship during his second term.
That is in spite of the fact that Trump saw his approval rating plummet in April following the introduction of his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The move triggered a temporary Dow Jones decline and stoked fears of rising inflation and an impending recession, causing his approval numbers to sink across the board.
But since then, economic anxiety has died down. Consumer confidence saw a surprising increase in May. The Conference Board reported a rise to 98, much higher than both the expected 87.1 and April’s 86 reading. It was the biggest one-month jump in more than a year.
Meanwhile, the pace of inflation slowed in April, the month that Trump introduced his tariffs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said last month.
The annual inflation rate was 2.3 percent in April, down from an annual rate of 2.4 percent March.
Nonetheless, polls still show that voters don’t trust Trump on the economy. Pollster G. Elliott Morris’ tracker shows Trump still underwater on the economy (-15) and inflation (-22). On the issue of trade, Trump is underwater by 12 points.
In pollster Nate Silver’s tracker, the results were similar, with Trump underwater on the economy by -10 points, and inflation by -18 points. On the issue of trade, Trump’s rating sits at -9 points.
In the latest Fox News poll from April, 72 percent said they were “very” or “extremely” worried about the economy entering a recession this year.
What People Are Saying
CNN pollster Harry Enten said: “This, I think, speaks to the Democratic ills more than anything else. They have traditionally been the party of the middle class—no more. Donald Trump and the Republican Party have taken that mantle away, and now a key advantage for Democrats historically has gone “adios, amigos.” And now, there is no party that is the party of the middle class. Republicans have closed the gap.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.
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