Donald Trump has taken the lead in a poll in New Hampshire, his first lead in the state since President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid in July.
The latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday night gave the former president 50.2 percent of the vote, a razor-thin lead on Vice President Kamala Harris’ 49.8 points.
It surveyed 622 registered voters in New Hampshire between October 24 and 26. Trump’s 0.4 point lead falls well within the poll’s +/- 5.12 percent weighted margin of error. However, it is still Trump’s first lead in the Granite State since pulling one point ahead of Joe Biden in another New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll in July, days before Biden dropped out.
Newsweek contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.
In the race for governor, Republican Kelly Ayotte continues to hold a modest but steady lead. In the New Hampshire Journal poll, she leads Democrat Joyce Craig 52 to 48 percent.
Harris, meanwhile, has won every other New Hampshire poll since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, including the most recent survey from The Dartmouth Poll conducted between October 5 and 18, in which she led by a massive 21 points (Harris 59 points, Trump 38 points). That poll surveyed 2,211 registered New Hampshire voters.
But Emerson College released a poll last week that put Harris only three points ahead and, combined with the latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll, the data is beginning to suggest a tightening race.
New Hampshire, which is considered one of the most conservative states in the northeastern United States, voted against Trump in both 2016 and 2020. It last backed a Republican for president when it voted for George W. Bush in 2000.
Betting odds website Polymarket currently gives Harris an 80 percent chance of carrying the state.
Despite the long odds, Trump’s campaign has been determined to keep treating New Hampshire as a winnable state throughout the 2024 campaign.
In September, the campaign ousted a volunteer who warned in an email that New Hampshire was “no longer a battleground state” and instead said the campaign should focus its efforts and resources on winning Pennsylvania.
The Trump campaign’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, who is a New Hampshire native, previously told Newsweek that Harris had little support in the Granite State.
“Granite Staters will not vote for dangerously liberal Kamala Harris, whose policies as vice president have increased our energy bills and created the most unaffordable housing market in New Hampshire’s history,” Leavitt said.
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