Popular discourse on the energy transition might have you believe that coal — considered by many to be the dirtiest of fossil fuels — is on its way out around the world. But if the energy source is indeed dying, its demise is the most comfortable and slow commercial death possible.
Now U.S. President Donald Trump wants to give it a new lease on life. Not that he needs an invitation. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a record high of 8.771 billion tonnes in 2024. Consumption is expected to remain near these levels until 2027.
Much of the increase is primarily attributed to rising electricity demand in China and India, the spread of electric mobility and heating, and exponential growth of hyperscale data centers.
In such a setting, U.S. exports of coal are steadily rising even though the country’s own domestic consumption has plateaued. It is a point not lost of Trump, who vowed during his presidential campaign to unleash his country’s industry allegedly stifled by his predecessor Joe Biden.
Mine, Baby, Mine
Even in those stifling Biden administration years and what Trump Republicans described as the “war on coal,” American exports grew steadily every year between 2021 and 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.
After having convincingly won the Powder River Basin states of Montana and Wyoming — home to the largest coal mines in the U.S. — on his way to the White House, Trump made his stance on coal abundantly clear to the world.
On January 23, speaking at the World Economic Forum barely days into his second presidential stint, Trump said: “Nothing can destroy coal — not the weather, not a bomb — nothing. And we have more coal than anybody.”
Less than three months on from that opening salvo on U.S. coal, on April 8 came Trump’s signature on an executive order “reinvigorating America’s beautiful clean coal industry.”
Ahead of signing the order, the president said: “Pound for pound, coal is the single most reliable, durable, secure and powerful form of energy. It’s cheap, incredibly efficient, high density, and it’s almost indestructible.”
And reiterating his thoughts from January, Trump noted: “You could drop a bomb on it, and it’s going to be there for you to use the next day, which you can’t say with any other form of energy.”
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum described the executive order as a license to “Mine, baby, mine” ushering in a golden age for U.S. coal. In partnership with the DoE, Environmental Protection Agency and Burgum’s Interior Department, five measures look set to boost the country’s coal industry.
They include: pathways for new investment in coal-powered electricity generation; the designation of steelmaking coal as a critical material and mineral; deploying mineral extraction technology from coal ash; commercializing coal ash conversion technologies; and, the reinstatement of the National Coal Council.
The council is a 50-member federal advisory committee established in 1984, but one that saw its charter expire under the Biden administration in 2021.
Following its full reinstatement, the council will include coal producers, users, equipment suppliers, state and local officials, and other stakeholders, engaging with and advising the government, according to the DoE.
Where From Here?
Make no mistake — Trump’s move is no small potato. In fact, it is more than a fulfillment of an electoral campaign pledge to support coal.
It allows the DoE’s Loan Program Office’s Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment Program to make $200 billion in financing available for coal energy investments. This provides a shot in the arm for coal financing stateside.
The DoE is also working with the Interior Department to recommend that coal be designated as a critical material for steelmaking, and in the U.S. 2025 Critical Materials Assessment.
In the current geopolitical climate, Trump also wants to increase his country’s focus on coal ash, deploying patented technologies to extract critical minerals from coal ash, and commercializing the recovery of critical minerals from coal ash in order reduce the U.S. reliance on China for such materials.
As for the country’s coal sector as whole, the U.S. remains a net exporter of coal, meaning it exports more than it imports. Three major export markets for U.S. coal include India, Japan and South Korea — nations that also rank among the world’s top five buyers of crude oil.
Furthermore, over 70 countries lined up to buy U.S. coal in 2024. It helped the U.S. break a six-year coal export volume record in June last year. The number is expected to be higher in 2025.
That’s because the U.S. is also emerging as a reliable Western buyer of last resort as well as an emergency coal procurement hub. On Tuesday, American coal arrived as an emergency measure to keep blast furnaces on at the U.K.’s last surviving virgin steel plant in Scunthorpe.
The rescue act was needed after the U.K. government legislated to seize control of the plant over the weekend following a breakdown in talks with its Chinese owner Jingye amid fears it was planning to switch the furnaces off.
Given the U.K. coal industry has been decimated by the current government’s green agenda and decision not to award any new coal mining licenses in the country since it came to power in July 2024, American coal turned savior of what’s left of British steel.
The Brits aren’t the only Europeans buying. A raft of green policies curtailing coal mining in Europe and the Russia-Ukraine war have resulted higher volumes of U.S. coal arriving in the continent.
For example, nearly a tenth of U.S. coal exports currently go to The Netherlands, as it ironically works out its green transition, putting it among the top five importers of U.S. coal in 2023-24.
With Trump’s so-called unleashing, reasonably stable demand, and no shortage of buyers — expect U.S. coal to grab a major global market slice over the near term and for much of his current presidential term.
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