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Eagles vs. Rams Betting Analysis
This is the type of game where you cannot look at just the records of both teams and come to the conclusion that the Eagles are significantly better than the Rams.
Yes, the Eagles are playing great football. As mentioned earlier, though, so are the Rams. They have only had both Kupp and Nacua healthy for four games this year, and they are 3-1 in those contests.
The Rams’ strong play over the last month includes a victory over the 8-2 Vikings back in Week 8.
The Eagles also have some impressive victories over their six-game winning streak, beating the Bengals by 20 points last month and taking down the Commanders on TNF in Week 11.
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Preview
We are past the point where we can call the Eagles’ defensive success a fluke, as they have been good for six weeks now.
The two toughest matchups they have had in this stretch were against the Commanders (sixth-ranked offensive DVOA) and Bengals (seventh-ranked offensive DVOA), and they past both of those tests with flying colors.
They held the Bengals to their lowest point total since Week 1, and the Commanders tied for their lowest point total of the season against Philly last week.
The biggest change from last year has come in secondary, where rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have both made an impact, and LB Zack Baun has been excellent after the Eagles took a flier on him in free agency.
Those three have completely revamped this defense. Philly boasts the fifth-best D in the NFL, according to DVOA, and the fourth-best defense according to EPA (expected points added) per play.
Offensively, their running game has been leading the way, as the passing offense is currently a work in progress. This six-game winning streak has come on the heels of stellar defense and a fierce rushing attack.
That sounds silly to say about a team that has one of the best O-lines in the NFL, Jalen Hurts at QB, and DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown at WR, but the stats bear that out:
- Rushing offense: No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 4 in rush offense DVOA
- Passing offense: No. 9 in EPA/play, No. 16 in DVOA
- Rushing defense: No. 6 in EPA/play, No. 9 in DVOA
- Passing defense: No. 3 in EPA/play, No. 5 in DVOA
Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview
The Rams’ season stats do not reflect how good this team is, as injuries were a major factor early this season.
In addition to the time their two All-Pro-caliber WRs missed, either, L.A. also suffered multiple injuries along its O-line at the beginning of the season. This week specifically, there is a chance they are getting tackle Rob Havenstein back, who has been sidelined since Week 9 with an ankle sprain.
His backup, Joe Noteboom, missed last week with an injury of his own, so L.A. will need Havenstein in this game, especially against a Philly D-line that lacks star power but is deep.
Despite only being healthy for the last four games, the Rams still have an impressive 12th-ranked offense according to DVOA.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense has not improved quite as much as the Eagles, but that unit has also gotten better over the course of the season.
According to DVOA, the Rams are the 18th-ranked defense in the NFL, but looking at weighted DVOA (which gives more weight to recent games), they are 14th. That’s nothing dramatic, but it does show improvement.
As mentioned earlier, the Rams have won four of their last five, with a 3-1 record in the four games that Kupp and Nacua have played together.
Eagles vs. Rams Prediction
This is admittedly a tough game to handicap, as the final scores show the Eagles keep blowing teams out. Looking into each game, though, you see an Eagles team that has often been unable to move the ball much in the first half.
Last week, they scored their first points of the game at the end of the second quarter, and they did not score their first touchdown until the fourth quarter.
The week prior to that, against Dallas in the first game that Dak Prescott missed, the Eagles’ first five drives went like this:
- Punt
- Touchdown (on a short field — only a 17-yard drive)
- Interception
- Punt
- Fumble
As good as their defense has been, there will come a time where that unit will not be able to bail the Eagles’ offense out.
Against a Rams team that is better than its record indicates, this could be the week where the Eagles’ luck runs out.
Eagles vs. Rams Best Bets
This has the feel of a game that is going to be decided by a field goal, so it makes a lot more sense to go with the team that is getting three points as opposed to the one that needs to win by at least that much.
Rams +3 (-115): 1 Unit
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