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Analysts warn global famine fears are rising as food prices climb and fragile supply chains are strained during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising the risk of a prolonged, Suez-scale, eight-year disruption.
As the conflict entered Day 62, the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, while Iran continued to effectively close the Strait.
“Best case, there is an agreement between the U.S. and Iran within the next few weeks, and the Strait reopens,” Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, told Fox News Digital.
“And it has to be a deal where there is trust that Iran is sufficiently satisfied with the deal such that they do not suddenly close the strait again.
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“Even in that case, it will still take months for the supply chains to revert back to normality.”
President Donald Trump announced April 21 he would delay renewed strikes on Iran until it presents a proposal for long-term peace, effectively extending a 14-day ceasefire indefinitely.
Trump said Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been effective, urging Tehran to “just give up” as tensions escalate over the waterway.
“Worst case, we can look at the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975,” Jensen said.
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“Despite its importance to the global economy, it proved impossible to reopen the canal for those eight years,” he said.
The Suez Canal, shut from 1967 to 1975 after the Arab-Israeli conflict, has faced recurring disruption, including Red Sea attacks since 2023, driving up insurance costs, creating a “shadow blockade” and curbing traffic.
For Hormuz, Jensen says fertilizer, which is central to agricultural production, is the most critical factor, and any sustained disruption could quickly ripple through global food systems.
“Fertilizer is the most important element. Thirty percent of the world’s seaborne fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf,” Jensen said. “Fertilizer prices are already rising fast,” he warned.
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“In wealthy countries, it means more expensive food come harvest season, and, in poor countries, it means that farmers right now cannot afford fertilizer,” Jensen added.
“This will lead to the harvest being lower later in the season, leading to rapid increases in food prices in very poor countries. And such a situation increases the risk of famine and conflict.”
Diplomatic efforts remained fragile between the U.S. and Iran as of Thursday, with limited signs of progress.
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According to reports, a giant banner hangs on a building in Tehran’s central Enqelab Square declaring, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; the entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground.”
“Cargo vessels are not going through for the simple reason that commercial companies do not want to see their seafarers potentially killed,” Jensen added.
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