Pollsters and analysts were left stunned after an internal polling memo circulated by the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, showed former President Donald Trump struggling in key battleground states.
The memo, dated October 8 and obtained by Politico, included polling where Trump trailed Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in Michigan and by 1 point in Pennsylvania. The candidates were tied in Nevada and Arizona, while Trump led in Wisconsin by 1 point.
The SLF is a political action committee that fundraises and campaigns to help the Republican Party regain majority control of the U.S. Senate. Its president, Steven Law, is the former chief of staff for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
As a super PAC, the SLF can fundraise unlimited amounts from individuals and corporations, but it cannot coordinate or contribute directly to candidate campaigns or political parties.
Political analyst Lakshya Jain, commenting on the memo on X, formerly Twitter, expressed disbelief at the state of the Republican polling data.
“I think that’s the worst set of polls I’ve seen a party release since Democrats went all hands on deck to get Biden out of the race,” he wrote.
Pollster Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports dismissed the polling, which showed Trump narrowly leading Harris.
“There’s no way,” Mitchell wrote on X, “absolutely no way a Trump internal poll had him close in OH.”
Jain pointed out that the polling came from the SLF, not Trump’s team.
Newsweek has contacted the Senate Leadership Fund and the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.
The memo, penned by Law, found that some GOP Senate candidates were trailing their Democratic opponents in competitive races.
In Pennsylvania, the polling showed Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick trailing Democratic Senator Bob Casey by 2 points, 46 percent to 48 percent. Trump was likewise narrowly trailing Harris in the Keystone State, 48 percent to 49 percent.
The gap between McCormick and Trump could hinder McCormick’s chances of unseating Casey, with the SLF memo noting that McCormick needed to close the gap with Trump voters.
“McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win,” Law wrote.
While the SLF was optimistic about states such as Montana, where GOP candidate Tim Sheehy led Democratic Senator Jon Tester, the outlook in other battlegrounds was more concerning.
In Michigan, the memo showed Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin widening her lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who had dropped significantly in favorability ratings since August. Slotkin now led 46 percent to 38 percent.
Perhaps the most surprising result in the memo came from traditionally red states. Texas, a GOP stronghold, showed signs of trouble, as Republican Senator Ted Cruz led his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, by 1 point—48 percent to 47 percent.
The memo attributed Cruz’s vulnerability to Allred’s significant spending advantage and his rising favorability, adding to concerns about maintaining control in the Lone Star State.
In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen led Republican Sam Brown by 7 points, 43 percent to 36 percent. The memo said Brown had “struggled to close the gap in this race, largely due to nonstop ads savaging him on abortion.”
Jon Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent, wrote on X that the internal poll was “nuts to leak,” pointing to the poor Nevada Senate numbers.
The memo gave an analysis of every Senate race where a poll was conducted, except for Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake trailed Democrat Ruben Gallego by 5 points. Lake’s favorability was low, with 37 percent of voters saying they had a favorable view of her against 53 percent with an unfavorable view. Her opponent’s favorability numbers were 40 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable.
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