The race for Congress in the lower Hudson Valley is a toss up, with first-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawyer getting support from 45% of likely voters and ex-Rep. Mondaire Jones backed by 44%, a new poll released Monday found.
The Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone receives 3% backing and the remainder undecided, the new Emerson College/Pix 11/Hill survey in the 17th District found.
Lawler’s razor-thin 1 point lead is within the survey’s plus or minus 3.8 percent margin of error, which means the race is up for grabs.
In a separate Emerson College poll just north in the 18th District, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan leads Republican riva Alison Espito 48% to 43%, with nearly 10 percent undecided. That’s just outside the margin of error, still a competitive race.
Both contests are among 7 competitive House races in New York’s suburbs and upstate that could determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
During the 2022 midterms, the Republicans regained the House majority after picking up 4 seats in New York — including Lawler’s victory.
Who turns out to vote could be key in the tight Lawler-Jones race.
Younger voters favor Jones and older voters prefer Lawler.
“Mondaire Jones is leading among young voters under 40, 51% to 40%, and those in their 40s, 45% to 41%, but trails among voters over 50, 49% to 40%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said.
“The Working Families Party candidate also pulls 6% among voters under 40.”
Democratic allies of Jones have gone to court in an 11th hour bid to knock Frascone off the left-leaning WFP ballot line, fearing he is a potential spoiler who can siphon votes from liberal Jones and cost him the election.
Lawler has a 47% favorable rating in the district, while 40% of voters have an unfavorable view of him, while 13% are not familiar with him.
Jones has a 40% favorable rating, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Twenty percent are not familiar with Jones.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 1-3, mostly before Lawler apologized last week for letting his enthusiasm as a Michael Jackson “super fan” get the best of him after old photos of him posing as the “Thriller” hitmaker while in blackface at a college Halloween party surfaced.
Meanwhile, a significant gender gap emerged in the 18th District that gives Ryan the edge.
Men break for Esposito 52% to 40%, while women break for Ryan, 54% to 34%, Emerson’s Kimball noted.
Meanwhile, the presidential election at the top of the ticket is neck-and-neck in both District 17 and 18.
In the 17th district, 49% support Kamala Harris and 49% support Donald Trump.
In the 18th district, 48% support Donald Trump, while 47% support Harris.
The top issues for NY17 voters are the economy (32%), followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (13%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%).
The top issues for NY18 voters are the economy (39%), housing affordability (16%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (6%).
Voters were asked if the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all.
A majority of voters in both districts think it is a crisis: 56% in NY17 and 53% in NY18.
The surveys were conducted online and via text with 630 likely voters in each district. Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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