With less than six months until the midterm elections, the battle for control of the Senate in Maine is intensifying as a new poll shows Democrat Graham Platner ahead of longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins by 9 percentage points.
Maine is a politically competitive state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, with former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying it by about 7 points in November.
But the state has also shown a history of backing moderate Republicans, including Collins, who has repeatedly won reelection despite Democratic gains at the presidential level, as well as independents like Senator Angus King.
Democrats are targeting the seat as part of their broader effort to regain control of the Senate. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats and President Donald Trump’s nationwide approval rating has slipped amid ongoing concerns about the cost of living and the economy. Only 38 percent of Mainers view Trump favorably, according to a recent poll. Democrats hope this will dim Collins’ reelection prospects, though she has easily won in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials.
Despite some notable gains in Platner’s polling, Republicans have pointed to Collins’ 2020 reelection victory over Sara Gideon, when she outperformed most public polling and won with 51 percent of the vote. Several polls showed Gideon up at least 4 percentage points ahead of Collins. After Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the race, Platner is believed to be the front-runner for the party’s nomination to match up against Collins. The primaries will take place on June 9.
What the New Poll Shows in Platner vs. Collins
A new Pine Tree State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from May 21-25 found Platner leading the race, with 51 percent of the vote compared to Collins’ 42 percent.
About 6 percent of voters were undecided and 2 percent said they would back a different candidate.
The polling shows a similar landscape to February, though the share of undecided voters has narrowed. A similar February poll found Platner leading Susan Collins 49 percent to 38 percent, with 9 percent undecided and 4 percent backing another candidate.
Independents are split in the new poll, with 47 percent backing Collins and 44 percent supporting Platner.
The poll is one of the few since Mills dropped out of the race, narrowing the Democratic field. The poll of 1,397 Maine residents has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
The state is a must-win for Democrats in their bid to reclaim Senate majority. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, so Democrats must flip four seats in the midterms to regain control. In addition to Maine, North Carolina’s Senate seat vacated by retiring Senator Thom Tillis is viewed as a top flip target, as Trump won the state by only 3 points in 2024. Democrats are also eyeing Senator John Cornyn’s seat after he lost the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday, hoping Democrat James Talarico will break through in the Lone Star State.
What Previous Polls Show
A recent poll from Pan Atlantic Research—the first since Mills ended her campaign—showed Platner with an advantage. He led Collins by 7 points, with support from 48 percent of respondents compared to the Republican senator’s 41 percent. Eleven percent said they were still undecided. It surveyed 827 likely voters from May 8-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
A Maine People’s Resource Center poll, which surveyed 1,167 likely voters from March 20-31, also showed Platner leading Collins by 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent.
A March Emerson College poll showed Platner up 7 points over Collins in a general election, 48 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 1,075 likely voters from March 21-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Read the full article here
