Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris continued to lead former President Donald Trump as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the election in November, although recent polls showed the race remains a dead heat—especially in several key swing states.
Key Facts
According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four major markets, bookmakers are giving Harris a 51.8% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 47.4%.
The numbers are a slight improvement for the former president, who was more than 9 points behind Harris last week after she had a series of favorable post-debate polls.
After trailing Trump for a couple of weeks at the start of September, Harris surged past him after a strong performance at the first and so far only presidential debate between the two candidates.
Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket now predict Harris has a 50% chance of winning the election—only slightly ahead of Trump’s 49%.
On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict Harris now has a 52.1% chance of winning, while Trump’s odds are at 47.6%
Bettors on PredictIt, the market where Harris has consistently led Trump over the past month, now give the vice president 57 cents per share (roughly equating to a 57% chance) compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share—virtually unmoved from last week.
Tangent
Over the past two weeks, the key swing for Harris on Polymarket has been in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where bookmakers now give here 51% odds of winning, compared to Trump’s 49%. This is a sizeable shift in the Democrat’s favor compared to earlier this month, when Trump had odds as high as 56%. Polymarket bettors now slightly favor Harris to win Nevada as well, marking another shift from earlier this month when they gave Trump a 54% chance.
Big Number
2.9%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
Surprising Fact
Bookmakers on Polymarket also believe there is a 27% chance of a second debate between Harris and Trump, down from 32% last week. Last week, Harris challenged Trump for another debate on CNN in late October, but the former president dismissed it, saying it would be “too late.” On Thursday, however, Puck News reported Trump may be mulling over it again.
Harris Gets Big Bump Over Trump In Election Betting Markets—One Week After First Presidential Debate (Forbes)
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