Science Applications International (NASDAQ:SAIC), a technology and engineering firm that mainly provides services to the U.S. government, is set to announce its earnings on Monday, June 2, 2025. For traders driven by events, historical data indicates a tendency for a favorable one-day return in the stock after its earnings release. In the past five years, SAIC’s stock has seen a positive one-day return in 63% of cases following earnings announcements. The median positive one-day return was 3.7%, with a maximum ability to yield a one-day return of 13.4%.
While actual results compared to consensus estimates and overall expectations will be critical, being aware of these historical trends may provide an advantage for traders. There are two main strategies to utilize this information:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Evaluate the historical probabilities and take a position in the stock ahead of the earnings release.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released, and then adjust your positioning accordingly.
Analysts estimate SAIC will report earnings of $2.12 per share on revenue of $1.87 billion. This is compared to the earnings of $1.92 per share on sales of $1.85 billion from the same quarter last year. From a fundamental standpoint, SAIC currently holds a market capitalization of $5.6 billion. In the past twelve months, the firm generated $7.5 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $561 million and net income of $362 million. That said, if you’re looking for potential gains with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieving returns of over 91% since its launch. Also, see – What’s Behind The 400% Rise In IONQ Stock?
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SAIC Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded during the last five years, which resulted in 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns. To summarize, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 63% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage rises to 64% if we look at data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 12 positive returns is 3.7%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -4.9%
Further data regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings are compiled along with the respective statistics in the table below.
SAIC Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though it may not be useful if the correlation is minimal) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, pinpoint a pair that shows the strongest correlation, and execute the correct trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Here is some correlation information based on the 5-year and more recent 3-year history. Note that the 1D_5D correlation refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
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