Intel is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Analysts expect the company to break even this quarter, forecasting an EPS of $0, compared to adjusted earnings of approximately $0.18 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to fall by around 3% to $12.31 billion. Intel has been facing considerable challenges in its CPU segment due to continued market share erosion in both server and client computing, along with modest overall market growth. Additionally, the industry’s broader shift from CPUs to GPUs in the AI era has weighed on Intel’s performance. Historically, Intel stock has tended to underperform following earnings releases, with the stock delivering positive returns just 30% of the time one day after earnings over the past five years.
Intel currently holds a market capitalization of $82 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $53 billion in revenue but operated at a loss, posting an operating loss of $4.7 billion and a net loss of $19 billion. For those seeking upside with less volatility than individual equities, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative. It has outperformed the S&P 500 and returned over 91% since its launch.
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Intel’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 recorded earnings events over the past five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative 1D returns. This indicates positive returns occurred 30% of the time.
- Over the last three years, this percentage rises to 42%.
- The median return for the 6 positive cases was 7.2%, while the 14 negative instances had a median return of -7.8%.
Additional data on 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns is presented in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A lower-risk approach (though only if correlation is meaningful) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. Traders can identify the strongest correlation and position accordingly. For example, if there’s a strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns, a positive 1D result may suggest a “long” position over the next 5 days. Below is correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) datasets. Note that 1D to 5D correlation refers to the relationship between the one-day return post earnings and the subsequent 5-day return.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer earnings performance can also influence how a stock reacts to its own results. Often, some impact is priced in before the company announces its results. Below is historical post-earnings performance data for Intel compared with peers who reported just ahead of Intel. Peer results are also based on one-day (1D) post-earnings movements.
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