FIRST ON FOX: The massive explosion that rocked Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port in the southern coastal town of Bandar Abbas has exposed the “deep vulnerabilities” of the Islamic Republic’s vital sectors as its concerns over internal unrest mount.
Iranian authorities this week have faced mounting accusations of negligence and an attempt to “cover up” death toll figures and the strong suspicion it was using a civilian port to import explosive materials for the military.
But what remains largely unknown is the extent of the damage, the economic impact and how it will directly affect Iranians already discontent with the Iranian regime.
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“Rajaee Port is Iran’s primary hub for maritime exports and imports, particularly for oil-based products,” Saeed Ghasseminejad, a senior advisor on Iran and an expert on its economy with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
Ghasseminejad explained that the southern port accounted for 52% of Tehran’s oil trade in terms of volume, 77% of its industrial metals and 85% of all container shipments, though he pointed out it is not Iran’s only major port.
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“At this stage, there is no credible damage assessment,” Ghasseminejad added, noting all guesses at this point about the extent of the damage were speculation based on images of the damage to the containers and the administrative buildings in the port.
But he noted that “if the damage proves to be extensive and severe, it could place the regime under significant economic and logistical pressure.”
Just two days after the explosion, Tehran claimed port operations had returned to normal. Iran says the explosion killed 70, but some sources estimate the toll could be closer to 250.
Drone footage of the port showed substantial damage, including the destruction of the nearby administrative buildings and a crater left by the explosion.
Officials with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) also told Fox News Digital that eyewitnesses have suggested it could take up to 20 days to extinguish ongoing fires, some of which are believed to be in the shipping containers.
“A clearer picture should emerge in the coming weeks,” Ghasseminejad said. “It is unlikely that the port is back to its normal operation and full capacity given the damage to the administrative buildings, the infrastructure, and the fact that hundreds of people working at the port are unfortunately dead, missing or injured.
“The regime has the incentive to lie as it wants to show it has control over the situation, but a lot of sources inside Iran in the business community differ.”
The Iranian regime was accused of “covering up” the death toll this week by the NCRI, which has spoken to eyewitnesses at the port, in a move to counter internal dissidence. It also took steps to limit access to information for not only local residents but media outlets, and it downplayed the severity of the incident.
“Regardless of the final assessment, the explosion underscores the deep vulnerabilities in Iran’s critical infrastructure and the regime’s incompetence,” Ghasseminejad said, “vulnerabilities that are even more acute in sectors vital to the regime’s survival, such as crude oil export terminals and gas production facilities.
“The regime is now both incompetent and weak, a deadly combination.”
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