Vice President JD Vance’s chances of being the Republican nominee in the 2028 presidential election have now fallen below 37 percent on Polymarket, marking their lowest level ever.
While Vance still has a strong lead on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is considered his main contender for the nomination, the latter has been gaining ground over the past few months, and is now trailing him by only 10 percentage points.
Why It Matters
While President Donald Trump has repeatedly teased the idea of somehow staying in power, saying that would be what Americans want, he cannot seek reelection in 2028 under the two-term limit.
The future of the GOP without Trump, a figure who has completely rewritten the terms of what it means to be a Republican, is uncertain. Both Vance and Rubio, the most likely contenders for the GOP nomination in the next presidential elections, are expected to carry forward Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda—but the conflict in the Middle East has shaken things up for the two conservatives.
What To Know
On Polymarket, Vance leads as the most likely Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election at 37 percent, followed by Rubio with 27 percent, commentator Tucker Carlson with 4 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 3 percent.
Despite Vance’s enduring advantage over Rubio, the gap between the two has narrowed significantly since the start of the war in Iran, in the secretary of state’s favor.
On Monday, Vance was down 19 percent since Polymarket started recording data, while Rubio was up 20 percent. Compared with a month earlier, Vance’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee was down 4 percent, while Rubio’s was up 12 percent.
While Rubio has been front and center since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, getting praised by the president for his role in it, many have noticed that the vice president has not been as present—or as vocal—as usual in the aftermath of the U.S. and Israel’s joint strikes on Iran on February 28.
“Where the hell is JD Vance? Where is he?” former GOP Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned her post in January, asked on Megyn Kelly’s show on March 3.
Shortly after, Vance broke his silence on the conflict, saying there was “just no way Donald Trump is going to allow this country to get into a multiyear conflict with no clear end in sight and no clear objective.”
Vance, who has long supported an anti-interventionist stance, is likely struggling to reconcile his views and his political identity with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In November 2024, he said on a podcast that waging war on Iran “would be a huge distraction of resources. It would be massively expensive to our country,” The Telegraph reported.
Despite his display of faith in the president, Vance has fallen short of personally agreeing with Trump’s decision to strike Iran.
What People Are Saying
Scott McConnell, journalist and co-founder of The American Conservative, wrote on X on Sunday that Vance should “announce your support of 25th amendment transition. Say [Connecticut Democratic Senator] Chris Murphy or similar will be veep. Announce you will NOT be a candidate in 2028. Use your position, access to the media to explain why this is necessary. Don’t resign.”
President Donald Trump said in August when asked if Vance is the MAGA successor: “Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
D. Stephen Voss, a political-science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek last month for a related story: “JD Vance has been Donald Trump’s heir apparent since Trump switched to him for the running-mate position. Should the relationship between the men sour publicly, then Vance’s standing could drop, but otherwise, Vance’s real problem will not be MAGA. Vance’s problem will be trying to motivate the many voters who usually stay home for elections but who show up for Trump himself. Vance simply doesn’t have Donald Trump’s hold on the American imagination.”
What Happens Next
Vance has maintained in private conversations that he is not yet sure whether he will seek the presidential nomination for 2028, the Washington Post reported on Sunday. An anonymous source told the newspaper that Vance is prioritizing his family life ahead of his fourth child, due this summer.
Neither Vance or Rubio have officially announced a 2028 presidential run.
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